Good evening. Tonight, we’re looking at why you should care about the high-drama California governor’s race, whether or not you live there.
What’s next in the volatile California governor’s race?
Welcome back to On Politics. It was a wild weekend in California, where a chaotic governor’s race was further upended by allegations of sexual misconduct against a leading Democratic candidate. Tonight, my colleagues and I will quickly catch you up on what happened, where the race goes next — and why this is reverberating well beyond California. What happened?Representative Eric Swalwell, a relatively young and punchy Trump antagonist, was emerging as the favorite of much of the Democratic establishment in the crowded, complicated race to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom. That all collapsed when news outlets on Friday began to publish reports that several women had accused Swalwell of sexual misconduct. The weekend then followed a pattern familiar to anyone who closely followed politics at the height of the #MeToo era: staff resignations, withdrawn endorsements, the candidate’s denial of accusations — and ultimately, a decision to exit the race. Swalwell announced last night that he was dropping out. And this afternoon, he said that he was resigning. What’s next?Swalwell, who has denied the accusations, is facing a criminal investigation. As for the impact of his exit on the governor’s race, I have a lot of questions. Where do Swalwell’s supporters go now? Do they meaningfully consolidate around a different Democratic candidate, or do they scatter their support across the large field? (Internal polls for different candidates tell different stories.) Can any of the other Democrats who have struggled to catch fire recalibrate and gain traction? Some Democrats had worried about being shut out of the general election altogether because of California’s unusual election rules, which allow the top two vote-getters in the June primary to advance, regardless of party. Does Swalwell’s exit make that less likely? It seems that way — and Democrats certainly hope so. The other Democratic candidates include former Representative Katie Porter and the billionaire financier Tom Steyer, who ran a failed campaign for president in 2020 (as did Swalwell). The Republican candidates include Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host endorsed by President Trump, and Chad Bianco, the sheriff of Riverside County. As my colleague Shane Goldmacher, a Californian himself, wrote today, “Perhaps nothing shows the seemingly diminished 2026 ambitions of California Democrats better than the fact that the most urgent goal advanced by the party leadership has been to avoid fumbling away the governorship entirely.” Why should non-Californians care?First, there is the psychic space California holds in the minds of many Americans. It’s a deep-blue state synonymous with liberalism, whose Democratic governor — an expected presidential candidate — has fashioned it as a bulwark against Trumpism. A race that could have been a feel-good story for Democrats nationally has instead played out, Shane wrote, as a “series of unfortunate events.” And in Washington, my colleague Annie Karni wrote over the weekend, the allegations against Swalwell “supercharged a push in Congress to expel a group of lawmakers in both parties facing serious accusations of wrongdoing.” It will be worth watching where that effort goes now that Swalwell is stepping aside. I asked my colleague Laurel Rosenhall, who covers California politics and government out of Sacramento, about what else you should know. Here are excerpts from our Slack exchange, which have been edited and condensed. Laurel, thanks for joining us, I know it’s a crazy time in California. How would you sum up the national implications of the governor’s race? California’s status as the largest blue state in the nation should make this race an opportunity for Democrats to elevate the next generation of party leaders. The state has a record of producing Democratic politicians with national profiles — like Newsom, who can’t run for re-election because of term limits, and Kamala Harris, who was the California attorney general and a U.S. senator before she became vice president. But this race is shaping up as a muddled mess that doesn’t seem to have an obvious front-runner with that kind of national stature. Do you have any sense, yet, of how Swalwell’s exit reshapes the race? Is there a clear beneficiary in terms of receiving support from his voters? Katie Porter and Tom Steyer have been polling close to Swalwell and are poised to scoop up some of his liberal supporters. They seem like the most obvious beneficiaries. But I think it’s also possible that a dark-horse candidate could emerge among those who had been polling below them. Matt Mahan is the little-known mayor of San Jose who has financial backing from the tech sector. Xavier Becerra has relevant experience and relationships that could help him rise. It’s a really big field and it has been a very unpredictable race. Anything else our readers really need to understand about this race? For Democrats, the odds of them getting boxed out of the general election have gone down a lot in the last week. Because so many Democrats were running and only two prominent Republicans were in, there was a possibility that the two Republicans would make the runoff. But between Swalwell dropping out of the race and Trump endorsing one of the Republicans, Steve Hilton, the odds of that happening now are greatly reduced. More broadly, the race shows the end of an era of machine politics for California Democrats. For the better part of 80 years, the San Francisco-based network that Newsom, Harris and Nancy Pelosi come from has dominated the statewide political landscape for Democrats. But Newsom is termed out, and Pelosi is retiring. No one running for governor now comes from their world. Their machine just isn’t what it once was.
QUOTE OF THE DAY “Our Lord represents humility, sacrifice, compassion, empathy and truth. Everything he is not.”That’s Representative Debbie Dingell of Michigan, a Catholic Democrat, responding to an apparently A.I.-generated image Trump posted on his social media platform depicting him as a Jesus-like figure. Prominent Catholics spoke out in protest of the post and Trump’s public attack on Pope Leo XIV in another social media post. Trump later took down the image. Got a tip?
ONE NUMBER $4.13That is, as of today, the average price of a gallon of gasoline nationwide. Trump had long downplayed the spike in gas prices because of the war in Iran. But yesterday, he told Fox News that prices “should be around the same” in November — and might even be “a little bit higher.” Strategists in both parties said Trump’s comments posed a challenge for Republicans, who are working to defend their House and Senate majorities, as the unpopular war drives up costs.
ONE LAST THING ‘I love Viktor,’ Trump said of Orban. Hungarians felt otherwise.Viktor Orban, the Hungarian prime minister and a champion of “illiberal democracy,” was defeated yesterday. But not for lack of trying from his powerful American surrogates. It’s worth remembering that Orban — “a lodestar for MAGA culture warriors,” as my colleagues Andrew Higgins and Lili Rutai put it — spent time during the final stretch of the race campaigning with Vice President JD Vance, while Trump called into a rally to offer support. Orban’s defeat, Andrew and Lili wrote, broke “the momentum of a global nationalist revival promoted by President Trump.” Taylor Robinson contributed reporting. Read past editions of the newsletter here. If you’re enjoying what you’re reading, please consider recommending it to others. They can sign up here. Have feedback? Ideas for coverage? We’d love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com.
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