Let’s talk about Shane McClanahan.
Or, rather, let’s not freak out about Shane McClanahan.
Tampa Bay’s erstwhile ace has had a shaky start to the 2026 season, that much is true. McClanahan is 1-2 with a 5.00 ERA and has failed to make it through five innings in three of his four starts. There’s no way to dress that up to make it look encouraging.
But, of course, there is more to the story.
McClanahan’s uncharacteristic struggles are undoubtedly tied to his two-year absence due to elbow and nerve injuries. And that can be a little unnerving if you’re the worst-case-scenario type.
It’d be pretty easy to jump to the conclusion that McClanahan no longer appears to be the pitcher who began his career 33-16 with a 3.02 ERA and back-to-back All-Star Game appearances in 2022-23. And it wouldn’t surprise me if a lot of people are already fretting about that possibility.
Except it’s far too early in his comeback to dabble in those assumptions.
While we do not have an abundance of evidence to go on when talking about pitchers who missed two full seasons before returning to the mound, there have been a handful of cases in recent years. And they mostly suggest it is a rather arduous process.
The most recognizable name – and the most encouraging example – is Phillies ace Zack Wheeler.
Wheeler, like McClanahan, originally was shelved with a ligament tear in his elbow that required Tommy John surgery. This was in the spring of 2015 when Wheeler was not quite 25 years old. He was expected to return in the summer of 2016 but had complications that led to several setbacks and forced him to miss all of 2016, too.
When he did return in 2017, Wheeler went 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA in his first four starts. Sound familiar? He went on the injured list with tendinitis in June and again in July with a “stress reaction” in his arm. He eventually finished the season with a 3-7 record and a 5.21 ERA while throwing only 86 innings.
That may have sounded ominous at the time, but it turned out to be a necessary part of the rehab process. It took time to rebuild strength. It took time to regain command of pitches. It took time to find his confidence and fine-tune his delivery.
Since then, Wheeler has gone 92-52 with a 3.11 ERA. He’s been to three All-Star Games and received Cy Young Award votes in five different seasons.
Pretty nice precedent, right?
Jameson Taillon and Steven Matz also came back to have successful careers after missing two full seasons, although they were both in the minors at the time. There are a handful of other pitchers who never really returned to form after a two-year absence, but they didn’t have the advantage of today’s medical technology.
Is McClanahan the same pitcher today that he was in 2023? No, he’s not.
His fastball velocity has dropped from 96.8 mph to 94.8 mph. His control is off and hitters are not chasing as many pitches out of the strike zone.
But four starts is not nearly enough time to suggest this is a new reality for McClanahan. He’ll continue to get stronger and refine his pitches. He may even experience some physical issues like Wheeler, and it wouldn’t be a shock if the Rays shut him down after 100 or so innings.
Will he once again be the pitcher who was on the verge of stardom in 2023?
It’s too early to say.
But it’s also too early to fret.
Give him time.
