Earlier today, both the United States and Iran suggested that they were preparing to send officials to Pakistan for peace negotiations later this week. But this new round of talks doesn’t appear to have much chance to make significant progress, as each country claims the other has violated their ceasefire agreement. Over the weekend, Iran reportedly fired on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and the US apparently fired on and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship that tried to get around its counter-blockade.
Last week, Brown University political science professor Jeff Colgan told me about the bind in which the US blockade has left the Trump administration. If it doesn't work, Iran will maintain its oil trade. And if it does, global oil prices are likely to spike even further, as many countries that rely on the strait will have no fuel to turn to.
Colgan's framing was key for me in trying to follow what’s going on with the fight for control over Hormuz, especially with new developments emerging every day. You can find my conversation with him here.
—Alex Nguyen
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