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Last week, Analilia Mejia won her election in a suburban northern New Jersey district, narrowing Speaker Mike Johnson’s majority to a measly three seats. To celebrate, and before Mejia was even seated, Johnson went ahead and lost two crucial and embarrassing votes in a 24-hour period, solidifying his standing as one of the weakest leaders in House history.
Worse for Johnson, the losses were the result not just of defections from the right, but from what passes these days as Republican moderates. The right-wingers are just auditioning for Newsmax and can be counted on to cave. Moderates, though, are actually afraid of losing their seats if they don’t distance themselves from the more toxic aspects of the Trump/Johnson agenda.
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Up to now, those moderates have seemed more scared of primaries and the wrath of Trump than of their own Trump-skeptical voters. But as midterms loom, and the president’s approval stagnates at historic lows, the calculus appears to be changing. That bodes ill for Johnson’s legislative agenda — and for his party’s 2026 prospects.
Inmates take over the asylum
Johnson’s first failure came last Thursday.
Trump’s white nationalist administration has been trying for months to revoke Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for 350,000 Haitian immigrants so it can terrorize and deport them. The courts have blocked the move, but the community remains in limbo as the case plays out.
At the end of March, Massachusetts Rep. Ayanna Pressley — a progressive Democrat — brought a discharge petition to the House floor to try to restore TPS for Haitians. Discharge petitions allow a majority of House members to force a vote on legislation that House leadership refuses to bring to the floor.
In the past, discharge petitions have been a rare occurrence. But Johnson has a slim majority — and perhaps more importantly, he regularly tries to ram through Trump’s priorities despite the wishes of his own caucus. As a result, there have been exponentially more successful discharge petitions this Congress than ever before in history.
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