Good morning. It’s Earth Day. The United States and Iran are locked in an uneasy stalemate. President Trump extended a cease-fire that was set to expire last night. But it’s not clear if peace talks will go forward. Read the latest updates here. And Virginia voters approved a new congressional map. We’ll get to that, and more, below — including a performance by a parrot with a prosthetic beak. But first, my colleague Evan and I take a look at what’s happening in Congress.
Congressional chaosThe 119th Congress is a mess. Partisan gridlock strangles both houses even though Republicans hold thin majorities. Misconduct scandal after misconduct scandal keeps a bad light shining on the Hill. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, a Florida Democrat, resigned from the House yesterday to avoid an expulsion vote. She had violated more than two dozen House rules, including campaign finance laws, according to the chamber’s ethics committee. (She still faces federal criminal charges alleging that she stole $5 million in coronavirus disaster relief funds.) Also out: Representative Eric Swalwell, a Democrat from California, and Representative Tony Gonzales, a Texas Republican. They both resigned last week after women who had been on their staffs accused them of sexual misconduct. And the House could expel Representative Cory Mills, a Florida Republican under investigation by the ethics committee to see if he, too, violated campaign finance laws. Mills has also been accused of assault and threatening a former girlfriend with the release of revenge porn. A resignation would go down easier than an expulsion, said Carl Hulse, who covers Congress. “Members are going to be reluctant to oust anyone if it cuts into their numbers with the margin so thin, even if they believe the person deserves it,” he wrote in an email. His subject line: “crazy congress.” Why is Congress such a train wreck? Let’s see. A hot messSince President Trump’s return, Republicans have enjoyed what every ruling partisan wants: control of the White House and both chambers of Congress. A trifecta. That kind of power supposedly greases the legislative machinery. But the Republican-led Congress last year hit historic lows for productivity, even by the institution’s own dysfunctional standards. House members cast 362 votes last year, the second-lowest count in a quarter-century. And just 64 bills became law. It struggles with the basics: The Department of Homeland Security, which employs some 260,000 people, has been shut down for nearly 70 days because lawmakers can’t agree on a deal to reopen it. As lawmaking cratered, our elected officials passed a record number of partisan rebukes to scold and punish one another. Americans notice: Congress’s approval rating has plunged to 10 percent, according to Gallup polling released this morning. Even the I.R.S. scores better. Meanwhile, Congress has ceded some of its powers to the White House: Republican members did little as the president refused to spend funds they had allocated and federal programs they had created. The Constitution gives Congress the exclusive power to declare war, but the G.O.P. has blocked Democratic-led efforts to curb Trump’s authority to fight in Iran. Trouble for RepublicansMany Americans say it’s time for a change. A year ago, it seemed like a pipe dream to hope that Democrats might retake control of Congress. Now they have a shot at capturing both the House and the Senate. So far, everything is going their way. Trump’s approval rating is down. Gas prices are up. Americans are angry about war in the Middle East. Recent elections have shown shifts of up to 20 points in Democrats’ favor compared with the 2024 election that returned Trump to the White House. A blue wave isn’t assured, but here’s the math: The House. Republicans have a five-seat majority (which includes one independent), so Democrats need to flip just a few seats (and keep their current ones) to win a majority next year. Kamala Harris carried nine Republican-held districts in 2024, and House Republicans hold 21 additional seats that Trump won by 10 points or less. Democrats are targeting Republican seats once considered out of reach. And in Virginia yesterday, voters approved a new congressional map that tips up to four more House seats toward Democrats:
The Senate. Flipping the Senate would require Democrats to win at least four Republican-held seats (while losing none of their own). Recent polls show Democrats tied or ahead in four states. In Maine and North Carolina, the likely Democratic nominees hold clear leads; the party has also recruited strong candidates in Ohio and Alaska.
Dysfunction junctionPossible expulsions, forced resignations, retirements, gridlock, shutdowns, bad polling? We went back to Carl to ask about the mood on the Hill right now: Certainly the Republican mood is not good. To me, it’s reminiscent of 2006, when the Republican majority entered the midterms under the weight of an increasingly unpopular war in Iraq and a cloud of corruption over Congress. Democrats won back both chambers. The whole place is pretty much on pins and needles.
Iran
Lebanon
Politics
Around the World
Artificial Intelligence
Other Big Stories
“Separation” tells the true story of a Honduran family living under the threat of deportation, in the form of a graphic novel reported by Jake Halpern and illustrated by Michael Sloan. Read it here. Jason Furman, Neera Tanden and Elizabeth Wilkins chat with David Leonhardt about why Americans are leaving blue states. Human made. Human played. 75% off. Subscribe to New York Times Games for 75% off your first year. Our best offer is only available for a limited time. Relax and recharge with our full portfolio of games, including Wordle, Spelling Bee, Connections, the Crossword and more — all mindfully made by humans.
A Turkish love story: After a forced confession and a death sentence, a Kurdish poet spent 30 years in jail. There, he found his voice and his life partner. Your pick: The most clicked link in The Morning yesterday was a video about influencers promoting health benefits of nicotine.
13— That is the age in years of Bruce, a disabled kea parrot in New Zealand who uses a prosthetic beak he made himself and became the “alpha male” of his group by learning to joust. |
