What matters in U.S. and global markets today

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Morning Bid U.S.

Morning Bid U.S.

A Reuters Open Interest newsletter

What matters in U.S. and global markets today

 

By Mike Dolan, Editor-at-Large for Finance & Markets

This week’s pack of major central bank meetings got off to a hawkish start with the Bank of Japan. While it kept interest rates unchanged, three of its nine policymakers voted to hike interest rates and it also lifted its inflation forecast. Bets on another rise in Japan’s policy rate as soon as June are increasing.

Now attention will turn to the other G7 central bank meetings this week - including the Bank of England, European Central Bank and Federal Reserve. None are expected to alter interest rates, but, like the BOJ, they may signal more hawkish policy ahead.

I’ll get into that and more below.

But first, check out my latest column, where I ask whether markets are really "seeing through" the Iran war - or are simply conditioned for a world of permacrisis. 

And listen to the latest episode of the Morning Bid daily podcast. Subscribe to hear Reuters journalists discuss the biggest news in markets and finance seven days a week.

 
 

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Today's Market Minute

  • The Bank of Japan kept interest rates steady on Tuesday, but three of its nine-member board proposed hiking borrowing costs, signalling policymakers' concerns over inflationary pressures from the Middle East conflict.
  • U.S. President Donald Trump is unhappy with the latest Iranian proposal on resolving the two-month war, a U.S. official said, dampening hopes for a resolution to the conflict.
  • Microsoft and OpenAI renegotiated a ‌pact that allowed Microsoft to exclusively sell the ChatGPT creator's AI models, clearing the way for the startup to forge new deals with Microsoft's rivals.
  • Record government debt is likely here to stay. ROI Markets Columnist Jamie McGeever explains why - and what it could mean for investors.
  • The onset of an El Nino this summer could place further strain on major power sectors. ROI Energy Transition Columnist Gavin Maguire breaks down what that could look like.
 

Talons on show

The yen firmed a touch on the BOJ decision to around 159 per dollar but later unwound those gains, and the Nikkei stock benchmark fell back 1%.

Stateside, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched their latest in a series of record closing highs after rising modestly on Monday. That came even as oil prices leapt to a three-week high, a rise that continued into Tuesday as Brent crude crossed $111 per barrel.

That reflects the continued disruption to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the lack of a material breakthrough in the Iran stalemate. Most recently, Reuters reported that President Trump was unhappy with an Iranian proposal to end the war that would set aside nuclear discussions until after the situation in the Gulf is resolved.

But even though investors may be warily eyeing energy markets, most are focusing more on this week’s central bank decisions and the mega-cap U.S. earnings due Wednesday and Thursday.

Tech and chip stocks remain buoyant, with Qualcomm jumping 13% on Monday on reports of a link-up with OpenAI on new smartphone processors. Nvidia surged to new records, having added back more than a trillion dollars of market cap over the past month. And South Korea’s chip-heavy KOSPI hit yet another record on Tuesday - even as other Asia markets slipped back.

Elsewhere, the Chinese government on Monday ordered that Meta unwind its acquisition of Chinese-founded, Singapore-based AI startup Manus. That shows how strategically sensitive the sector is to Beijing.

In other AI news, a renegotiated deal between Microsoft and OpenAI will allow the ChatGPT creator to sell products to Microsoft’s competitors - a sweeping but expected change to what’s been one of the AI era’s most consequential alliances. Microsoft, for its part, will aim to reduce its reliance on OpenAI by developing its own AI models.

With that, onto today's column.

 
 

'See through' Iran war? Markets exploit permacrisis instead

Dissonance between record-high stocks and a geopolitical shock puzzles many, and a common narrative is that investors are "seeing through" the Iran conflict. But there's another take: this is just the sort of world we're now stuck in, and blow-by-blow events matter less than mega-trends and long horizons.

In an event-packed week like this, arguments cut both ways.

Sky-high oil prices are real and do matter - but they could, and have, also dropped 15% to 20% in an hour in this frenetic war environment. Energy experts may fret about intrinsic, ‌long-lasting damage to the physical energy market - but stock and bond markets ruthlessly price forward and assume eventual "normalisation" regardless.

 

 

Graphics are produced by Reuters.

Read the full column