Don’t Stop the Music. The concerns around artificial intelligence spending loomed large for investors today after the Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI had missed revenue and user targets. That sent most of the tech sector spiraling—one day before several of the biggest AI spenders are set to announce earnings.

Making a bad situation worse, oil prices rose today on news that the United Arab Emirates was leaving OPEC. International Brent crude prices were around $110 per barrel at close, while domestic prices were just under $100 a barrel.

Both the Nasdaq Composite Index and the S&P 500 slipped after closing at records on Monday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 0.9%, while the S&P 500 was off 0.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 31 points, or 0.1%.

The dip comes ahead of a jam-packed day tomorrow that will provide investors with a lot of information on the health of both the economy and major tech firms. Wednesday is set to deliver a Federal Reserve interest rate decision, a Senate committee vote on a new Fed chairman, and late-day earnings reports from four Mag Seven companies. Or as my colleague Paul La Monica calls it, the “midweek macro-storm.”

The Fed meeting and the vote on Kevin Warsh’s nomination aren’t expected to deliver too many surprises—it’s the earnings reports that will likely provide the biggest market moves.

Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms and Microsoft have to deliver the goods, so to speak. Paul notes that “the market needs Big Tech earnings to live up to the hype. The April market rebound needs more good news if it’s going to have room to run.”

The Hot Stock: Centene +14.0%
The Biggest Loser: Alexandria Real Estate Equities -11.3%

Best Sector: Energy +1.7%
Worst Sector: Technology -1.3%

The Federal Open Market Committee will announce its latest monetary policy decision tomorrow. But it’s almost guaranteed that it will keep the federal-funds rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, and the real focus will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s next move.

This is likely Powell’s last FOMC meeting as chair. After serving in the role since 2018, Powell’s term is set to end on May 15. President Donald Trump has nominated Warsh to fill the role, and the Senate Banking Committee is expected to vote to advance his nomination tomorrow. The full Senate is expected to confirm Warsh when lawmakers return from break during the second week of May.

But while Powell’s time as chair is nearly over, his term as governor runs through January 2028. And the big question is whether he will step away from the Fed, or break with tradition and stay on.

During the March FOMC meeting, Powell was forthright about his plans to stay at the Fed until the Department of Justice’s investigation into the Fed’s headquarters renovation project were “truly over with transparency and finality.”

U.S. attorney Jeanine Pirro announced Friday that the DOJ was closing its criminal probe for now, transferring the investigation to the Inspector General for the Federal Reserve. The move paved the way to advance Warsh’s nomination, which Sen. Thom Tillis (R., N.C.) threatened to block unless the DOJ backed off.

But will it be enough for Powell to leave the central bank in Warsh’s hands? Or will he stay on until the IG’s inquiry is complete?

In this situation, I think the Clash had it just about right when they sang “If I go, there will be trouble…And if I stay, it will be double.”

AbbVie, Aflac, Align Technology, Allstate, Alphabet, Amazon.com, American Water Works, Amphenol, AstraZeneca, Automatic Data Processing, Biogen, Bunge Global, Canadian Pacific Kansas City, Canadian Railway, Carvana, Chipotle Mexican Grill, C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Cognizant Technology Solutions, eBay, Emcor Group, Entergy, Equinix, Ford Motor, Garmin, GE HealthCare Technologies, Generac Holdings, General Dynamics, GSK, Humana, IDEX, Invitation Homes, KLA, Lennox International, Meta Platforms, MGM Resorts International, Mid-America Apartment Communities, Microsoft, Old Dominion Freight Line, O’Reilly Automotive, Phillips 66, Qualcomm, Regency Centers, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, SBA Communications, SoFi Technologies, Stanley Black & Decker, Tyler Technologies, UBS Group, UDR, Verisk Analytics, Vici Properties, Vulcan Materials, and Yum! Brands announce earnings tomorrow.

The Census Bureau reports new residential construction statistics for March. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.4 million privately-owned housing starts, nearly 100,000 less than February.

The Census Bureau releases the durable goods report for March. The consensus call is for a 0.5% month-over-month increase in new orders for manufactured durable goods, following a 1.3% decline in February.

The Fed announces its monetary-policy decision.

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