|
 |
If you enjoy this preview, I hope you’ll consider upgrading to a paid subscription.
For those who don’t have or want a Substack account, you can keep Off Message going with a donation. All support is appreciated, and donations of $75 or larger come with a comped annual subscription—all content unlocked and emailed to the address provided.
 |
Heather L. What is continually shocking to me is that even when Trump’s poll numbers are “plummeting”, the approval rating among Republicans remains an absolutely staggering 68%. I mean WTF. Just in the past few weeks alone, he’s insulted the Pope, threatened nuclear war, ranted incomprehensibly for hours and hours in the middle of the night, on social media, etc. etc.
What do you think it will take -- will anything EVER -- change the MAGA faithful’s minds about Trump? And if they NEVER change their minds, do you think that means that elected Republicans will NEVER change their support for Trump -- not until they’re voted out of office? And then what does this all mean for any possible recovery effort to salvage our democracy? How do we rebuild the country if some subset of people literally never come to their senses?
Hi Heather. Not sure which poll or polls you’re looking at, but I want to challenge your intuition that 68 percent in-party approval is staggering. In a polarized system, it’s actually perilously low. The helplessness we all feel from time to time isn’t really because Trump’s supposedly unshakable base makes him teflon. It’s because public opinion is more or less our only source of leverage against him, and he doesn’t respond to public opinion in the manner of a well-adjusted person.
Trump is almost as unpopular now as he was after the insurrection, with room left to fall. But I think from there we intuit, reasonably, that this should prompt a change in behavior, and often it just doesn’t. Trump has spent the overwhelming majority of his two terms in a limbo zone where he’s not popular enough to win a snap election, but not so unpopular that members of his party will turn on him in droves. That is less a function of people not changing their minds (they definitely are changing their minds) than of a system that (under certain circumstances, anyhow) insulates incumbent parties from consequences. We don’t have snap elections! And that means a disciplined majority party can commit to a program of abuse that’s terribly unpopular, and “get away with it” for at least two years.
But setting that aside, here are two habits of mind that help me keep a handle on where things are and where we seem to be going: The first is to think along the margin; the second is to not over romanticize human nature.
I frequently hear from people in this pro-democracy movement that Trump voters are beyond reach, and so Dems should stop trying to appeal to them. Reroute their efforts into reaching demoralized Democratic and Dem-leaning voters. And—sure turnout and persuasion are two great tastes that taste great together. But take this post for instance:
The screen grab comes from a recent New York Times focus-group report. I don’t mean to pick on posters at random, this one just happened to cross my feed a couple days ago. And, yes, Argenis and Alla seem pseudosavvy about politics in a barstool-prophet kind of way. In Alla’s case, she uses cliched insights about politics to justify her bad decisions to others and maybe to herself. She either likes Trump’s predatory nature deep in her lizard-brain, or can’t admit she was wrong. Stubborn people are very frustrating. But to draw the inference that all Trump voters are beyond reaching, you have to ignore both of the other participants in the same screen grab! Obviously Pamela and Franceska deserve a heap of “I told you so”-style gloating from their liberal relatives. They got suckered by a con artist more transparent than the wallet inspector. But here they are admitting error and regret! Their sentiments:
‘I should’ve known Trump was who he always appeared to be.’
‘I should’ve realized his outrageous promises were false.’
That’s two gettable voters right there, out of four. Not a valid sample, but revealing. When Trump drops from 90 percent support among Republicans to 70 percent support among Republicans, that means many, many, many millions of Americans have shifted. They will not all vote Dem. But some will! And others will choose not to vote Republican. That’s plenty for Dems to win elections by landslide margins.
Then on human nature: It’s sad but worth remembering that even in democratic societies with better systems of accountability, something like 20 or 25 percent of citizens are basically fascist. So once Trump gets down into the low 30s, he won’