Dear friends and colleagues:
The CFR Global Monetary Policy Tracker is updated through May 5.
Our algorithm declared the global easing cycle ended a month ago. Since then, central banks have gone into wait-and-see mode, unsure whether the sharp rise in energy prices resulting from the Hormuz standoff will feed broader inflationary pressures. The major reserve-currency issuing central banks all kept their policy rates steady over the past month: the Fed at 3.63%, the ECB at 2%, the PBoC and 3%, the BoJ at 0.75%, the BoE at 3.75%, the Bank of Canada at 2.25%, and the Reserve Bank of Australia at 4.1%. Our CFR Index of Global Easing (-)/Tightening (+) holds steady at 0.22/10: near-perfect neutrality.
Looking forward, the market now sees less than 10% odds of the Warsh Fed easing by year-end.
Please be sure also to check out our CFR Global Inflation Tracker, which covers nearly 200 countries over the past quarter century. Sincerely, |
