Friends,
This week on The Spillover, Rebecca Patterson and I discuss prediction markets. The promise is seductive: high quality forecasts, updated continuously. But the reality is messy: underage sports betting, insider trading, and a threat to the states’ tax base. You can listen to the episode here.
In other news, I debated the wisdom of semiconductor export controls and the plausibility of an AI nonproliferation regime with my friend Jack Goldsmith of Harvard Law School. Jack is skeptical of the workability of such a treaty. Given the power of models such as Mythos, I believe we have no choice but to try. You can listen to our conversation here.
Best wishes
Sebastian
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Sebastian Mallaby
Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow in International Economics
Council on Foreign Relations |
