What matters in U.S. and global markets today
 

Morning Bid U.S.

Morning Bid U.S.

A Reuters Open Interest newsletter

What matters in U.S. and global markets today

 

By Mike Dolan, Editor-at-Large, Finance & Markets

U.S. President Donald Trump’s two-hour meeting with China’s Xi Jinping in Beijing on Thursday was full of warm words and seemed to skirt many contentious issues - though Xi said trade talks were making progress and issued a warning over Taiwan.

For now, the first day of the summit has offered little for investors to grasp on to. That leaves the market with two dominant themes - oil-fuelled inflation and the AI boom.

I’ll get into that and more below.

But first, check out my latest column on why the Fed may have to hike rates.

And listen to the latest episode of the Morning Bid daily podcast. Subscribe to hear Reuters journalists discuss the biggest news in markets and finance seven days a week.

 
 

Data refreshes every time you open this email. For more U.S. market news, click here. Please send any feedback to morningbid@thomsonreuters.com.

 

Today's Market Minute

  • China's Xi Jinping told President Trump that trade talks were making progress at the start of a two-day summit on Thursday but warned that disagreement over Taiwan could lead to conflict.
  • Investors are bracing for U.S. Treasury yields to stay higher longer, skeptical that incoming Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will be able to tame inflation stoked by surging oil prices during a prolonged Middle East conflict.
  • The U.S. has cleared around 10 Chinese firms to buy Nvidia's second-most powerful AI chip, the H200, but not a single delivery has been made so far, according to a Reuters exclusive.
  • A delicate balance in the physical oil market may not hold for long as peak demand season looms, making the economic impact of the Iran conflict more visible and more painful, argues ROI Energy Columnist Ron Bousso.
  • Is Trump in a weaker position now than when he last met Xi Jinping in October? ROI Markets Columnist Jamie McGeever examines eight charts that suggest he is.
 

'G2' choreography

On the inflation front, U.S. producer prices in April rankled with their biggest monthly rise in four years, adding to news of above-forecast core consumer price gains in the same month.

Fed models now anticipate that headline annual inflation will be back above 4% in May, and bond markets are restive, with yields rising across the curve as futures move to price a possible Fed rate rise over the next 12 months.

Boston Fed boss Susan Collins said the central bank could no longer look through supply shocks as inflation had remained above target for five years now - and was rising again.

With no end in sight to the U.S.-Iran stalemate, a tough backdrop faces incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who will take the helm tomorrow after his appointment was confirmed by the Senate on Wednesday.

But rising borrowing rates have done little to dent stock market enthusiasm as Wall Street indexes pushed higher on Wednesday, taking the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to record closing highs. Stock futures pointed higher before the bell, while European shares rose after the open.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei hit another record and South Korea’s SK Hynix was on the cusp of becoming the country’s second trillion-dollar market cap after Samsung cleared that milestone last month. Asia’s chip giants were in focus again as Taiwan’s TSMC upped its standing forecast for chip demand through 2030 by 50% to $1.5 trillion.

Meantime, Britain’s political uncertainty eased a touch as Prime Minister Keir Starmer continued to resist calls to stand down. However, a leadership challenge may still be brewing, with health minister Wes Streeting reportedly preparing to resign and mount a bid to oust Starmer.

With that, onto today's column.

 
 

Fed may have to hike to defend its credibility

Sitting out the oil shock may not be enough. The Federal Reserve may now have to prove it will act to meet its inflation target, much as its counterparts in Europe seem determined to do. Given what Wall Street forecasters currently think, that could pack quite a punch if it happens.

Year-end crude oil futures are near their highest level of the Iran war so far, and with little sign of a durable peace deal. April U.S. inflation data this week showed the ‌mounting damage to already above-target prices.

 

 

Graphics are produced by Reuters.

Read the full column