A Reuters Open Interest newsletter |
|
|
|
Making sense of the forces driving global markets |
|
|
|
Another day, another record high for the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and many stock markets around the world on Thursday, as the Xi-Trump summit in China and stalemate in the Persian Gulf gave investors no reason to pause the relentless tech rally.
In my column today, I look at the U.S. bond market. While the long end of the curve grabs headlines as the 30-year yield rises above 5%, borrowing costs are also spiking at the short end. For a heavily-indebted Treasury reducing its debt maturity profile, this is a worry.
If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today. |
|
|
|
-
STOCKS: Fresh highs for Nasdaq, S&P 500, Nikkei, KOSPI, MSCI All Country; 11-year peak for Shanghai Composite; Europe +0.8%; UK +0.5%.
-
SECTORS/SHARES: Cerebras +90% on Nasdaq debut, Cisco +13%, Ford +7%, Nvidia +4%. Qualcomm -6%, Boeing -5%. Six sectors in the S&P 500 rise, five fall. Tech +1.9%.
-
FX: Biggest decliner globally is GBP. USD index +0.4%. USD/JPY back above 158 for first time after intervention. USD/CNY new 3-year low ~6.78, USD/INR record high.
- BONDS: Yields fall, UK gilt yields as much as 8 bps at long end, U.S. yields -4 bps. Curves flatten.
-
COMMODITIES/METALS: Oil ends flat, silver -5%.
|
|
|
|
* Bad breadth
Global stocks are roaring to fresh high after fresh high. What's not to like? Earnings are rising and the market looks like a well-oiled machine. But under the hood, the engine is not firing on all cylinders - leadership is extremely narrow.
FTSE Russell analysis shows that nearly 50% of the FTSE All-World return in April was generated by only 13 stocks (of 4,250) and all AI-related. LPL Financial's Adam Turnquist says 53% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day moving average, versus 77% average when the index is at a record high. Unsustainable, right? Maybe. But as Goldman says, narrow breadth can persist "for months". |
|
|
|
*Asia's AI frenzy
With U.S. President Donald Trump in China flanked by many of the world's most powerful mega-tech executives, Asia's tech giants are flexing their market and financial muscle too. Taiwanese chipmaker TSMC on Thursday said it is aggressively ramping up its capacity, and South Korea's SK Hynix is on the verge of becoming a $1 trillion company.
These two megacaps and Samsung are at the vanguard of Asia's AI boom that is attracting huge overseas investor inflows. All three count the "Mag 7" U.S. tech giants as customers and sell hardware to Nvidia, the world's most valuable company at the heart of the global AI boom. |
*Keir today, gone tomorrow?
UK health minister Wes Streeting resigned on Thursday and called for a leadership contest, piling the pressure on prime minister Keir Starmer. Streeting did not trigger a formal contest, and it's unclear he would stand in one, but Starmer's grip on the party and power appears to be slipping.
Meanwhile, Manchester mayor Andy Burnham said he would seek to contest a parliamentary seat that has just become vacant, potentially paving the way to challenge Starmer. The |
|
|
|
|
