Good evening. Georgia Republicans are struggling with how to beat Senator Jon Ossoff. Abortion is putting President Trump in a bind, again. And Trump said he had authorized a new wave of attacks against Iran — but has decided to hold off. Tonight, we’re focusing on the always-important battleground state of Pennsylvania.
Why Josh Shapiro isn’t acting like other potential 2028 candidates
Good evening. Tuesday is Primary Day in Alabama, Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, Oregon and Pennsylvania. We’ll have tons of coverage for you all day, and I’ll be back with a special How-To-Watch edition of On Politics tomorrow. Tonight, I want to focus on Pennsylvania, perhaps the ultimate battleground state. In keeping with its recent reputation as the center of the political universe, the state may play a decisive role in determining control of the House of Representatives as Democrats try to flip four seats there. Gov. Josh Shapiro, a Democrat widely seen as a potential presidential contender, is also up for re-election there this year. In an interview, he said he was focusing his political muscle on Pennsylvania races at every level of government. “We’ve got at least four competitive congressional races that could determine the outcome of who’s in control of the U.S. House,” he told me. “I’m doing everything in my power to rally the troops, raise funds, build an organization that can help not just win my own re-election, but help Democrats up and down the ballot.” His in-state emphasis reflects the ultracompetitive nature of Pennsylvania. It is also a contrast with a number of other possible candidates — some of whom aren’t on the ballot this year, or are from politically safer states — who have made recent pilgrimages to traditional early-voting presidential primary states like South Carolina and New Hampshire. So far, Shapiro’s re-election contest — he is expected to face Stacy Garrity, the Republican state treasurer — doesn’t look especially close. But November is a long time from now, and he’ll be the first to stress that no one should take anything for granted, especially in Pennsylvania. Trading Beaufort, S.C., for Bucks CountyPrimary voters in early-voting presidential states expect to meet candidates, sometimes multiple times, often years before voting begins. While Shapiro released a book this year and maintains a significant national donor network, he is not doing much on that circuit so far. But it’s not hard to see how Shapiro’s approach could translate into a national argument, too — depending on how November goes. “Primary voters in those other states are going to be able to appreciate how important it was for him to concentrate on the state this year — it would almost seem ridiculous if he didn’t,” former Representative Conor Lamb, a Pennsylvania Democrat, said of Shapiro’s potential “national future.” “He’s smart enough to know what his responsibility is right now, which is to lead the ticket.” When I caught up with Shapiro, I said I knew that he was focused on his own race and on races in Pennsylvania, and that he had said that no one should be looking beyond the midterms. “Stipulating all of that,” I said, “what is the national story you hope to be able to tell about Pennsylvania the day after the midterms?” He had a ready answer. “Pennsylvania is the ultimate swing state,” he replied. “It’s the hardest state to win in, and it’s an incredibly hard state to govern in. I’ve managed to win every time I’ve been on the ballot, and we’ve governed successfully. We’ve got a lot more work to do, but we’ve gotten a lot of stuff done.” He added, “My hope is that Pennsylvania, in this election cycle, is once again pivotal and helps deliver a Democratic majority in the U.S. House and provides a check on Donald Trump.” An early testOne measure of his political influence will come tomorrow, in a crowded Democratic House primary race to take on Representative Ryan Mackenzie, a Republican. Shapiro is supporting Bob Brooks, who leads a major firefighters union and is backed by a broad spectrum of endorsers, ranging from Senator Bernie Sanders to the House Democratic campaign arm. Shapiro and Brooks campaigned together yesterday. There are risks to Shapiro’s decision to wade in, warned former Representative Susan Wild, a Democrat supporting another candidate, Carol Obando-Derstine. “If Brooks doesn’t win, Shapiro’s going to have lost some good will,” she said. “Why do you want to wade into a competitive primary and risk antagonizing part of your base?” Brooks has also had to walk back a comment he made about Shapiro, a reminder that political newcomers can come with pitfalls, even in this strongly anti-establishment moment. The governor dismissed the argument that the endorsement could backfire as a hypothetical. “I believe in Bob Brooks, I believe in firefighters, and I believe that he is the best candidate to win that district,” he said. (Complicating the race: A mysterious super PAC with links to Republicans has paid for mailers and ads in the district supporting a candidate named Lamont McClure, a former Northampton County executive, and opposing Brooks and another candidate, Ryan Crosswell, a former Justice Department attorney, my colleague Shane Goldmacher reported.) Democrats also have an outside shot to flip the Republican-controlled State Senate and to secure a trifecta. If Democrats have total control of Harrisburg, I asked, would Shapiro pursue redistricting that would benefit his party (something a number of other Democrats, often from bluer states, are considering)? He called that question, too, a hypothetical. Representative Chris Deluzio, a Pennsylvania Democrat actively involved in the competitive House races this year, said flipping the State Senate would be tough — but could be significant for Shapiro’s agenda in 2027. “If Democrats have the House and the Senate in Harrisburg,” he said, “it opens up the governor’s ability to deliver much more boldly.”
QUOTE OF THE DAY “He was Trump before Trump was Trump.”That was Michelle Smith, a longtime aide to Ken Paxton, the hard-right Texas attorney general who is vying for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in his state. Paxton, who has never lost an election in his quarter-century of public life, is up against Senator John Cornyn, the four-term incumbent. My colleagues Michael Kruse and Lauren McGaughy, who wrote a profile of Paxton, describe his story as reliant on a narrative of political persecution not unlike President Trump’s. Got a tip? ONE NUMBER
37 percentThat’s President Trump’s approval rating in the latest New York Times/Siena poll, a second-term low amid the deeply unpopular war with Iran. My colleagues Lisa Lerer, Ruth Igielnik and Camille Baker explained that the Republican Party is on rocky political footing heading into the midterm elections as the president’s approval rating sinks and economic concerns rise.
IN ONE GRAPHIC Redistricting has thrown a wrench in primary schedules, caused incumbents to spar with one another in newly combined congressional districts and generally stoked upheaval. Redistricting is also, my colleague Ashley Wu reports, making the midterms less competitive this year.
ONE LAST THING Kentucky’s curious cast of political charactersWhat state is home to politicians with nicknames like “Happy,” “Mr. No” and “Cocaine Mitch”? Ever since Daniel Boone first rode into Kentucky, my colleague Reid J. Epstein writes, the state has served as an incubator for colorful figures who stand out for their quirks, their rejection of party orthodoxy and their national success despite long odds. Reid even included a poem in his analysis of the characters Kentucky produces, for your literary pleasure. |
