Washington, DC

1. Congress asserts nuclear authority
2. Rubio-Vance Iran contrast
3. Hormuz is changed forever
4. Trump and Zelenskyy speak
5. Gaming vs. prediction markets

SpaceX shares ▲ 5% today on acquisition of coding agent Cursor for $60 billion.

Both parties unite around Hill vote on Iran nuclear deal

A rare bipartisan consensus is forming in the Capitol: Any nuclear agreement that President Donald Trump strikes with Iran must get a vote in Congress, Semafor’s Burgess Everett, Lauren Morganbesser, and Adrian Elimian report. Republicans who pressed Congress to debate the previous nuclear deal 11 years ago say the law requiring congressional review of US-Iran nuclear accords will apply again. Democrats agree, and some argue that Trump’s memorandum of understanding with Iran — which Congress hasn’t seen yet — should be subject to congressional debate. Trump said today he would send any future agreement to Congress, but it’s not clear how lawmakers might hold him accountable. “It’s very clear in federal law that the Senate gets to weigh in,” Sen. Brian Schatz, D-Hawaii, told Semafor. Sen. Todd Young, R-Ind., concurred: “If the president strikes an agreement with the Iranians, it has to come before us.”

Vance fronts the Iran deal as Rubio stays quiet

Vice President JD Vance has become the main face selling the Trump administration’s US-Iran deal, but just as notable is who isn’t out promoting it: Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Rubio, though widely seen as one of Trump’s best communicators — and a potential 2028 Vance running mate or even top-of-the-ticket contender — has been largely quiet on Iran. Some of that is likely due to circumstance; Vance was already set for a TV network sprint to talk about his new book, while Rubio is in France with Trump for the G7. But Rubio’s absence could also be intentional, given he was skeptical about the deal as it came together. (A State Department official maintained that Rubio and the administration “are in lockstep behind” Trump’s foreign policy.) Regardless, Vance’s high-profile advocacy for the deal stands to haunt (or help) him should he run for president.

View: Hormuz will never really be open again

The US-Iran de-escalation deal may bring oil tanker traffic back to something resembling the prewar norm, but the global energy trade will never be the same. Oil prices will very likely fall — Goldman Sachs lowered its fourth-quarter Brent forecast from $90 to $80 per barrel on Monday. Assuming a real ceasefire actually holds, it will take time, possibly months, to clear out trapped tankers and bring in new empty ones, and to rebuild and restart damaged production and export facilities. There will also be demand for oil to refill heavily depleted reserves in the US and elsewhere. The Strait of Hormuz will never really be “open” in the same way again, either. Iran has proven, and maintains, its military capacity to shut it down with relative ease, and may emerge from these talks with the long-term ability to exact “fees” for transit.

G7 leaders shift to Ukraine

Trump and the rest of the G7 leaders shifted their focus to the four-year Russian war in Ukraine today, as they met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in France. The leaders agreed to “increase pressure on Russia … through sanctions on oil and gas,” a French diplomatic source told the Financial Times. Trump, who has spoken optimistically about ending the Ukraine war, acknowledged earlier today that it has been more difficult than he anticipated. “I have settled eight wars, this was the one I thought would be the easiest to settle. A lot of dislike between the two leaders,” he said during a meeting with the Emir of Qatar, calling on Russia to “make a deal.” Trump had a pull-aside with Zelenskyy during the larger meeting, after French President Emmanuel Macron was caught on hot mic calling his talk with Trump “difficult.”

Gaming industry, unions push for prediction market rules in crypto bill

The gaming industry is banding together with tribes and unions to urge lawmakers to add language barring prediction markets like Kalshi from offering sports wagers to pending cryptocurrency legislation, according to the text of a letter viewed by Semafor. “While our organizations may differ on other issues, including gambling policy, we are united in our concern that prediction markets have fueled the largest expansion of gambling in U.S. history over the past 18 months — without voter approval or legislative authorization,” the American Gaming Association wrote alongside the Indian Gaming Association, plus the AFL-CIO’s Hotel and Gaming Trades Council and UNITE HERE, among others. “Congress should not wait while this nationwide expansion of gambling continues.” AGA said last month it believes states have lost $1 billion to prediction markets since the start of 2025, an estimate the latter contests.

— Eleanor Mueller

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Disclaimer: This season of Compound Interest is sponsored by Amazon Business. This episode is commercial content produced by Semafor Global Studio with Amazon Business.

US-Iran Agreement

• President Trump’s deal with Iran allows Tehran to begin selling oil and other fuel immediately. — WSJ
• A $300 billion private fund will be seeded by corporations to incentivize development in Iran, which has had nearly no foreign investment in four decades. — Reuters

White House

• The FBI arrested “multiple individuals” accused of planning a foiled attack on a UFC event held at the White House Sunday.
• Construction costs for President Trump’s ballroom project have surged to an estimated $600 million, with more than half of the money coming from taxpayers. — WaPo
• Vice President JD Vance selected longtime Trump aide Nick Luna to serve as his new chief of staff. — Punchbowl

Congress

• House Republicans dropped their opposition to the Senate’s proposed housing bill, signaling a final deal is imminent. — Punchbowl News
• Sens. Ed Markey, D-Mass., and Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., are asking the US’ traffic safety regulator to examine Tesla’s crash statistics for its “Full Self-Driving” system. — Reuters

Energy

• Oil companies are showing new interest in drilling in Venezuela, particularly after the war in Iran. — Politico

Politics

• Former President Barack Obama never quite recovered from his COVID-era 60th birthday bash, Tina Brown writes, when longtime aides lost their invites, while the Hollywood stars who kept theirs had something in common — private planes.

Courts

• The Justice Department has targeted nearly four dozen of President Trump’s personal and political enemies. — WSJ
• Federal prosecutors announced charges against 15 people in Minneapolis for “conspiring to impede or injure federal officers” during the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement operation earlier this year.
• A federal judge temporarily blocked Idaho’s new law criminalizing the use of restrooms that do not match an individual’s sex at birth.

Technology

• Since SpaceX’s historic IPO, the company is now more valuable than Amazon and Meta. — NYT

National Security

• President Trump invoked the Defense Production Act to increase production of critical munitions.
• General Motors is in talks with Lockheed Martin to make parts for Lockheed’s weapons. — WSJ

Immigration

• ICE removed some detainee protections and incorporated changes to detention center standards sought by one of its top contractors. — WaPo

Education

• The Department of Education plans to move the offices responsible for special education and civil rights to the Department of Health and Human Services and the Justice Department, respectively. — WaPo

World

• The US is asking Europe to designate more of its military hardware for NATO as President Trump plans cuts to American assets.
• China is quietly expanding its export control regime against the US to extract political concessions and shape the behavior of other countries. — WaPo
• The Bank of Japan raised interest rates to a 31-year high to combat inflation linked to the war in Iran.