A fragile ceasefire at the Strait of Hormuz may have finally broken.

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Hey Snackers,

Be careful, your Waymo might narc on you: two 15-year-olds in San Mateo, California, who were drinking alcohol and shooting water beads out of the window while joyriding in a Waymo, were delivered directly to a local police department by their Alphabet-owned driverless vehicle. 

The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 dropped yesterday, while the Nasdaq 100 rose, thanks to gains in chip stocks. Energy and information technology were the only sectors to close higher. 

 
STIR THE POT

Ceasefire ceases, fire increases

Crude oil prices spiked, stocks slipped, and oil-exposed consumer and travel stocks took a hit yesterday as President Trump, at a NATO summit in Ankara, delivered remarks following strikes against Iran that certainly didn’t lower the temperature. 

  • A fragile ceasefire that has endured any number of tit-for-tat exchanges of fire over the past several weeks may have finally broken. 
  • The United States struck Iran on Tuesday in retaliation for Iranian strikes against three commercial vessels traversing the Strait.  
  • “I think it’s over. I don’t want to deal with them anymore. They’re scum,” the president said.
  • President Trump said that the ceasefire was “over” early Wednesday. 

Iran’s ability to block the Strait of Hormuz, and also its ability to inflict direct pain on oil and gas infrastructure of regional partners of the United States, give it a disproportionate amount of sway over the global economy. 

THE TAKEAWAY

The initial closure of the Strait of Hormuz had massive ramifications for global supply chains, and it was only thanks to significant efforts from some of the largest global consumers of oil that things didn’t get completely out of hand. Those efforts were temporary measures; the United States has only so much left in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and China’s efforts to stabilize global oil markets by drawing on its inventories can’t continue forever. If the pain was bearable in the spring, it’s not entirely clear it’ll be the same by the autumn. 

 
SCOREBOARD

Dispatches from our sports newsletter

Nobody survives lengthy tennis matches like Novak Djokovic, even at age 39. The seven-time Wimbledon champ’s latest marathon masterpiece came Tuesday against Felix Auger-Aliassime, as the 25-year-old Canadian pushed him to five sets. But Djokovic outlasted his younger opponent to win the longest quarterfinal in tournament history, finishing just before the All England Club's 11 p.m. curfew. It was Djokovic's 38th career five-set victory at a major — extending an all-time record for men’s tennis — and it tied his iconic 2018 semifinal victory over Rafael Nadal for the longest match of his Wimbledon career, at 5 hours and 15 minutes. Next up tomorrow? Just a matchup with No. 1 seed Jannik Sinner, where Djokovic is an 80-20 underdog.

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Snacks Shots

  • ⚽️ World Cup: Today it’s tournament-favorite France* taking on Morocco in the first of the quarterfinal matchups we’ll be enjoying this week. France is indeed the favorite for this match as well, with a 77% chance to beat Morocco.

*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.

 

What else we're Snackin'

  • New Jersey lawmakers are expected to vote on a bill that would require driverless cars to have lidar — effectively banning Tesla vehicles. 
  • In other car legislation, every new car in the European Union must now include a camera pointed at the driver’s face.
  • Meta is testing “super sensing” AI glasses that record continuous audio and take pictures every few seconds.
  • Nvidia stock is the cheapest it’s been since 2019, based on price-to-estimated earnings.
  • Though J.M. Smucker is crushing it with Uncrustables, its $5 billion bet on the Twinkie flopped.
 

Snack Fact of the Day

Among self-directed investors, 14% say they use AI tools to learn about investing.

 

Thursday

  • PepsiCo slated to release quarterly results premarket
 

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