Let’s start from a position of charity: J.D. Vance is in an extremely difficult position. It is widely assumed that he opposed the U.S. war on Iran—correctly, in my view—but when President Donald Trump chose to launch it, Vance was fully on board. Who can blame him for that? Vice presidents don’t usually take public stands against their presidents.

His dilemma worsened when Trump’s war blew up in his face, thanks to Iran’s asymmetrical warfare—not merely seizing the Strait of Hormuz but a willingness to go for the desalination and gas-refining jugulars of Arab Gulf States, and accept the catastrophic suffering of its own population. The president named Vance chief negotiator to try to extract the U.S. from the mess Trump made.

The June 17 memorandum of understanding (MOU) negotiated by Vance collapsed under repeated Iranian violations of its terms—which the Islamic Republic had never quite accepted in the first place, which became unignorable after Iran attacked Persian Gulf shipping on July 6. In short, Iran made a fool of both the United States and the vice president—but then, given the sinister nature of the Iranian regime, that was always in the cards.

Trump himself shrugged at the recent NATO summit, calling further negotiations “a waste of time.”

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Meanwhile, the midterms are approaching, Trump’s approval ratings are in the basement, and the administration is increasingly blamed by the right, which accuses Trump of betraying voters who believed he would keep America out of “forever wars.” What is Vance, assumed to be looking forward to running as Trump’s successor in 2028, to do?

Surveying the dire political and geopolitical landscape, the vice president has decided that the real villain in all this is Israel...