Washington, DC

1. Warsh gets breathing room
2. Polls missed again
3. AOC scrambles social media
4. Swalwell special election drama
5. Hormuz trouble

Turnout surged 46% in the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary, compared with the last competitive primary in 2018, and 60% in the Minnesota Democratic Senate primary, compared with 2000.

Inflation cooled in July

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh might have a little bit more breathing room on interest rates. New data out today showed the annual inflation rate fell to 3.4% in July, down from 3.5% in June. The Consumer Price Index, a measure of the underlying costs of goods watched closely by the Fed, increased just slightly — by 0.2% — from the previous month, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The picture could support a wait-and-see approach on interest rates when the Fed meets in September, though the central bank will receive more employment and inflation data before then. For consumers, the new data still shows inflation outpacing wage gains, which is felt most acutely by middle- and low-income Americans.

Primary polls missed again

Polls overestimated the strength of a leftist candidate again, setting off a debate today about the power of big, establishment endorsements. Democratic socialist Francesca Hong lost the Democratic primary for governor of Wisconsin last night by a razor-thin margin to David Crowley, the establishment pick, after holding a commanding lead in the polls. Last week Abdul El-Sayed, endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., eked out a victory in the Democratic primary for Senate in Michigan, after running ahead of Rep. Haley Stevens, D-Mich., by double digits. Primary polling is notoriously difficult, and in Wisconsin a game of candidate musical chairs made polling harder still. Still, both Crowley and Stevens outperformed expectations after receiving late endorsements from their states’ respective sitting Democratic governors, Tony Evers and Gretchen Whitmer. The mild-mannered Evers “looks like a titan this AM,” Democratic strategist David Axelrod tweeted.

Ocasio-Cortez’s social media boomlet

The social media debate kicked up by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s openness about freezing her eggs shows the upside — and the risk — of her unique place in the political attention economy. While some conservative online pundits leapt to criticize the 36-year-old New York Democrat for her decision, her candor in sharing it resonated with even some of her ideological foes. Talking about health “could be helpful to the public in many ways” — with the added benefit of “being vulnerable, which is obviously an important component for success on” social media, one House Democrat said. Yet Ocasio-Cortez’s disclosure also led to what the Democratic lawmaker lamented as “Teen Magazine-level coverage” of her personal life. As she mulls a 2028 presidential or Senate bid, she may be setting a millennial trend toward humanizing revelations as more lawmakers seek to connect with voters.

— Nicholas Wu

Campaign finance violation allegations fly in Swalwell special

The final week of the race to fill former Rep. Eric Swalwell’s, D-Calif., seat is being roiled by disputes over the role of the local Democratic Party and money. A supporter of Melissa Hernandez, a local transit official backed by the centrist New Democrats, filed a Federal Election Commission complaint against state Sen. Aisha Wahab, a progressive endorsed by the California Democratic Party. The complaint alleges Wahab received an “illegal and unreported in-kind contribution” from a county party, stemming from an initial contribution of $60,000 from Wahab’s own state Senate campaign account. “Sacramento politicians play by their own rules while families here pay the price, and this complaint shows exactly how that game works,” Hernandez said in a statement. Wahab responded saying the complaint was “deliberately misrepresenting” the party’s support for her despite their endorsement.

— Nicholas Wu

White House works to calm energy markets

Oil prices rose today after declining last week on hopes of a breakthrough between the US and Iran, which remains elusive. The White House is signaling to markets to remain calm, as fears grow over energy supply disruptions. President Donald Trump posted today on Truth Social that the US has “total control” over the Strait of Hormuz, disputing Tehran’s claim that it remains closed. Yesterday Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that more oil has been flowing out of the strait than commercial data can capture, “due to ships moving covertly.” In Saudi Arabia, a supertanker was spotted at its main export hub for the first time in weeks, suggesting Riyadh may be shifting some exports away from the Red Sea amid Houthi attacks. Absent a deal, Iran appears to be digging in to survive a prolonged blockade — rationing goods, restricting access to foreign currency, and cutting investment.

On Wednesday, September 16, Rep. Suzanne Bonamici (D-Ore.) will join us for the Youth Wellbeing Forum: Building Resilient Generations. As young people are challenged by rising rates of loneliness, anxiety, and depression, we are bringing together experts across technology, healthcare, and policy to examine solutions that can build lasting resilience. Semafor editors will sit down with Jaymes Black, CEO, The Trevor Project; Rep. Kevin Kiley (I-Calif.); Nicole Hockley, Co-Founder & CEO, Sandy Hook Promise; and Dr. Jon Kole, Medical Director and Senior Director of Psychiatry, Headspace, to explore how to build lasting resilience for the next generation.

Washington, DC | September 16 | Request Invite

White House

• President Trump announced that White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt will be leaving her role at the end of the month to spend more time with her family.
• Trump’s White House construction projects could cost $900 million. — WaPo

Courts

• US Attorney for DC Jeanine Pirro has convened a special grand jury that could allow prosecutors to release critical reports on the subjects of investigations, even if not enough evidence is found to prosecute them. — WaPo
• A former employee at the Southern Poverty Law Center was arrested on charges of making secret payments to informants in hate groups, a practice the center says is legal. — CNN

National Security

• Ukraine halted its campaign of drone strikes on oil tankers using a Black Sea port after a request from Vice President JD Vance. — FT
• A US-Ukraine military exercise exposed major US vulnerabilities to battlefield drones. — WSJ
• Sailors deployed on the USS Abraham Lincoln have tried to jump overboard.

Campaigns

• The National Republican Senatorial Committee is backing Sen. Darline Graham, R-S.C., in the South Carolina runoff and is urging her former primary opponents to endorse her as well. — Politico
• Rep. Max Miller’s, R-Ohio, PAC made contributions to more than a dozen Republicans in tight midterm election races, and few have said whether they plan to return the money, as Miller faces domestic abuse allegations. — Politico

World

• An oil spill off the coat of Oman is quickly becoming one of the world’s worst in years.

Outside the Beltway

• Mark Walter will sell the Los Angeles Lakers to Bob Iger and Josh Kushner, brother of President Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, for more than $12 billion, just 14 months after Walter bought the team.

Immigration

• An Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent pointed his gun at a woman in Virginia who shouted at him, videos show.
• The Justice Department charged 11 people in an alleged decades-long scheme that arranged sham marriages to help foreign nationals obtain legal residency, following President Trump’s executive order aimed at restricting “birth tourism.”

Economy

• Companies waiting for tariff refunds are selling their claims rather than waiting for a payout from the government. — WSJ
• President Trump’s planned 50% tariffs are pressuring Canadian manufacturers to consider moving production to the US.

Media

• The Intercept is suing the Trump administration over the president’s premium-access Truth Social product, calling it a violation of the First Amendment.

— Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Katie Miller’s podcast.

Laura McGann, editor

With help from Elana Schor, senior Washington editor, and Morgan Chalfant, Washington briefing editor

Graph Massara and Lauren Morganbesser, copy editors

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