Good morning. Authorities in Nepal are warning rescuers that more flooding may be on its way. Let’s start there.
After the delugeAs emergency workers flew helicopters up steep Himalayan river valleys yesterday to find survivors of a flood that killed more than 500 people and left more than 1,000 missing, scientists began to investigate its cause. They’ve been looking at satellite imagery and seismological data. The likely culprit: A gigantic landslide high in the mountains led to a glacial collapse that sent millions of tons of ice and rock into the valleys below it, pulverizing them into mud and water. The slurry burst dams and turned rivers into hydraulic rams. “The rock that the glacier was sitting on collapsed,” one scientist said. The scale of the disaster is staggering. It’s as if 1,000 Empire State Buildings exploded at the same time and the debris coursed down a canyon. The path of destruction ran for more than 40 miles. It washed away roads, cut bridges in half, overcame buildings and swallowed people whole. On the ground
Anupreeta Das, who covers South Asia, was in Nepal yesterday, flying with rescuers to interview shocked survivors. They told her about the torrents of mud that brought horror into their lives. Here’s what she heard from a resident of a village close to Nepal’s border with Tibet: “They all died, and I lived,” said Dawa Lama, 45, starting to weep as he recounted how, just before 9 a.m. on Wednesday, he had heard a thunderclap, and then felt a breeze. Before he knew it, an enormous wave of muddy water had slammed into his home of 12 years in the border village of Timure, carrying away not just his belongings but also his wife and their two daughters, 7 and 8. Read more from the survivors here. Our changing climate
Scientists may still be putting together the exact causes of this week’s floods, but they are certain that climate change is heating the Himalayas and increasing the risks of disaster. Here’s why: A warming planet is melting the region’s permafrost, the mixture of frozen soil and rocks that has sat below its glaciers for millennia. Losing it leaves mountains and glaciers unstable — prone to landslides and collapse. “As the glaciers retreat and the permafrost melts, we see that these slopes become more susceptible to failure,” one scientist who studies glaciers told The Times, adding, “There’s a very straight link between climate change and these types of disasters.” More on the flooding
President Trump signed an executive order yesterday renaming Lake Ontario to Lake America, effective immediately. The lake sits between the United States and Canada, so it’s a symbolic target amid the trade war between the two countries. (Trump said yesterday that Canada “treats us very badly.”) Legally speaking, the order — like Trump’s earlier one to rename the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America — likely requires only federal entities to recognize the change. Other countries don’t have to recognize it. Nor do Americans and their businesses, even those within spitting distance of Lake … whatever you call it. (The Times will continue to call it Ontario.) Amanda Miller, 45, owns Lake Ontario Realty, which has helped people buy and sell waterfront properties in the area for over 20 years. By yesterday afternoon, her phone was blowing up. Everyone wanted to know: Would it be “Lake America Realty” now? No. It’s nothing personal, Miller told me; business is business. Lake Ontario Realty is well-known in the area around Chaumont, N.Y., and rebranding for no reason is “the worst thing you can do,” she said. — Evan Gorelick Related: A Canadian official said the U.S. had raised issues with the country’s use of the French language in trade negotiations — and that if the Trump administration changed course, trade talks could potentially resume.
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Gov. Josh Shapiro, a Democrat running for a second term in Pennsylvania, holds a 16-point lead over his Republican opponent, Stacy Garrity, a New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena poll found. Morning readers often ask how The Times’s polling works. Here’s a question we received from Jean Oswald in Rochester, N.Y.: How do we know polls are truly showing the breadth and width of Americans’ feelings? I don’t answer my phone when the number is unrecognizable. Perhaps many people like me are not polled. We asked William Davis, our director of election data analytics, to answer: Jean, you’re not alone. In our last national poll, we placed 250,000 calls to 100,000 people in order to get 1,500 responses. The question is whether you and other people like you persistently pick up the phone less frequently than groups that are demographically and attitudinally different. Pollsters have some ways of fixing those issues. They can call more people in groups who are less likely to respond. Or they can adjust the weight of individuals in the poll so groups are correctly represented compared with the census or other sources. But it’s hard. We know that voters who are engaged with the news respond to polls at higher rates, but we don’t know what the right number of highly engaged news consumers is. As a result, polls can be off if, for example, a candidate like Donald Trump is singularly able to get people who don’t pay much attention to the news to vote for him in overwhelming numbers.
Trump’s spat with Canada is proof that America is in decline, Frank Bruni and Bret Stephens argue in this week’s edition of The Conversation. Seeking help is not just for moments of life-or-death crisis. It’s also crucial to becoming successful, Angela Duckworth writes. Get access to five locked games. Save 75% on your first year of a New York Times Games subscription. Get full access to Wordle, Spelling Bee, Crossplay, the Crossword and more.
We’ve made these links free for you. Blended refreshers: Your favorite Starbucks drink may be making your barista break out in hives. Iceland Eclipse festival: Meet the most optimistic people in the world. Your pick: The most clicked story in The Morning yesterday was a video of the flooding in Nepal.
1793— That is the year Davoll’s General Store opened for business in South Dartmouth, Mass. It’s living history. Loiter and linger as long as you like. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
