Elbows and Chin Up: A Whirlwind Week in the U.S.-Canada Trade WarFor the past two weeks we have worked closely with our Washington colleagues to get the most detailed, corroborated account of what happened when weeks of trade talks between Canada and the United States broke down late last Friday night. Saturday morning brought a rallying speech from Prime Minister Mark Carney, and the two countries are now locked into a trade war. President Trump restarted his rhetorical attacks on Canada’s sovereignty and signed an executive order renaming Lake Ontario to “Lake America,” a decision derided, mocked and shrugged off by Canadians and others. What comes next?
We worked with The Times’s trade reporter Ana Swanson in Washington, and between us we spoke to two U.S. government officials and three Canadian officials with direct knowledge of the talks, as well as two former U.S. officials and five industry leaders on both sides of the border who were briefed throughout. We put each side’s claims to the other and found that, fundamentally, there were no major discrepancies between the two narratives, despite the heightened political tensions in the days after. Our key findings, corroborated by officials on both sides of the negotiating table:
Here’s a gift link to the story, and a link directly below if you already subscribe to The Times. To help you make sense of a dizzying week in the trade war, we’ve pulled all our coverage into the Canada Letter as a special report.
Canada’s economy and retaliationEconomists this week expect that the new measures won’t shrink Canada’s economy very much. But for individual businesses that depend on exporting to the United States, the 50 percent tariffs may be a disaster. The economy is sheltered because Mr. Trump left some of Canada’s most valuable exports off his hit list, including oil, gas and potash. What’s on the U.S. list? Some odd things. Canada retaliated with tariffs on about 700 American products. But that quickly underscored how difficult it is to make sure that trade revenge doesn’t backfire. The government was quickly forced to pull dozens of fish and fish products off the list after Canadian fishing groups, whose industry is closely integrated with the United States, warned that the measure would hurt them equally. Then, on Friday, came data that indicated Mr. Trump had failed to cripple Canada’s economy: About a year and a half after he put tariffs of up to 50 percent on Canadian steel, aluminum and autos, the Canadian economy grew by an equivalent one-year rate of 3.3 percent in the second quarter of this year. Statistics Canada said that was driven by a boost in exports and increased auto production. Canadians dig into the resistanceThe first wave of tariffs against Canada last year provoked a grass-roots effort to support all things local and shun the United States. Since then, Canada has inked new deals, notably on autos and energy, with countries in Asia and Europe that have put it on a stronger economic footing. Still, business owners in areas targeted by Mr. Trump’s tariffs expect to hurt financially. Some are embracing the show of resistance. Here’s how a trendy Canadian retailer is dealing with the tariffs, and the origins of the “elbows up” movement. Also, some Canadians want the government to get out of its deal with the U.S. to buy as many as 88 F-35s. And why not? This week, Vice President JD Vance called Canada “a state” during a speech in Maine. Analysis and opinionWhen Mr. Carney ordered his negotiators to walk away, he did something that no other world leader has been able to do: stand up to Mr. Trump despite the risks. Tuesday’s episode of “The Daily” explored why Canada is done with the U.S. president. The Times’s chief White House correspondent, Peter Baker, wrote that while the president remains the most dominant figure in the world, other leaders and institutions are pushing back more vigorously than at the beginning of his second term. Send us your questionsAs journalists, we’re always asking questions, especially during a relentless news cycle. We’re inviting you to send us your questions about the trade war, and our reporters will answer a selection in next week’s Canada Letter. Please email us at nytcanada@nytimes.com and include your full name and where you live. We won’t publish your question without following up with you first, verifying your information and hearing back from you. And we won’t share your contact information outside the Times newsroom or use it for any reason other than to get in touch with you. The conversationThousands of Times readers shared reflections on the escalating trade war throughout the week. Here are just a few: |
