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1. Oh. Canada.
Can America renormalize its relationship with Canada under a future administration?
This seems like a simple question. Of course a different president could unilaterally drop tariffs against Canada, restore the name Lake Ontario, and disclaim any interest in annexation or intent to pursue it. Maybe he could even sign a formal treaty with a security guarantee. Something like a Treaty Organization with other North Atlantic states.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
But it’s not that simple. It would be fine for a Democratic president to do those things. But from Canada’s perspective, such acts would be strategically meaningless if the Republican party remained committed to Donald Trump’s view that Canada should be a vassal state.
So the real question is: Will the Republican party be anti-Canada once Trump has shuffled off?
No one knows.
You could envision a Trumpless world in which the new owner of the Republican party says something like, “Trump 2 was crazy! Of course we’re going back to normal with Canada.”
On the other hand, it’s also not hard to imagine a world in which anti-Canadianism becomes a key part of Republican political identity.
For instance: Suppose the Democratic party made normalization of relations with Canada an important policy plank. Suppose Democrats framed it as an explicit rejection of Trumpism:
We’re going to stop Trump’s stupid tariff war, kill Trump’s “Lake America” nonsense, and make some sort of formal apology to Canada for Trump’s belligerent threats to annex them.
Well, then, wouldn’t ambitious Republicans be honor-bound to reject Democratic attempts at normalizing Canada? Wouldn’t ambitious Republicans be incentivized to endlessly troll Democrats about Lake America and making Canada the fifty-first state?
That’s how negative polarization works.
I suspect that the best chance for the GOP to abandon antagonism toward Canada would be if Democrats remained silent, allowing Republicans to climb down from the Trumpist position unnoticed by their own voters.
And maybe Democrats will do that.
I can only tell you that if I were a Democrat running for office I would not give them a free pass. Then again, I also think Democrats should talk a lot about the importance of using seatbelts.¹
We’re eventually going to ask a version of the Canadian question about a lot of Trump obsessions. Will it be required for Republicans to support:
The National Guard deployed in American cities?
A triumphal arch next to Arlington National Cemetery?
Steam-powered catapults on aircraft carriers?
Warm personal relations with Kim Jong-un?
The ballroom? The Gulf of America? Trump’s face on passports and National Parks passes and currency?
Understanding the answers to these questions isn’t a matter of politics. It’s ...
