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US early-stage VC deal activity is on pace for one of its strongest years on record, even as the investors historically most active in this market struggle to fundraise, according to our new analyst note, Multistage Funds in Early-Stage VC: Bigger Checks, Fewer Winners.

In 2026 so far, $86 billion has been deployed across 4,864 early-stage deals, with annualized deal value nearly matching 2021’s record high.

Deal value is sustained by a small set of large-check writers, primarily multistage funds, whose capital base continues to be replenished at a record scale.

Deal count comes from two sources: multistage funds themselves and a separate, narrow set of high-frequency investors, including major accelerators and systematic small-check investors, whose fund models don’t depend on the fundraising conditions currently squeezing emerging managers.

Multistage funds’ growing footprint at early-stage VC reflects a shift in company needs, not investor strategy.

A narrow segment of AI-native companies, particularly frontier labs and AI infrastructure players, now require growth-style capital even at the early stages. Multistage funds have shown they’re more than willing to meet that need.

This phenomenon is most visible at Series A, where multistage participation hit a record 38.9% of deal value and 17.8% of deal count in 2026 YTD, versus just 6.9% of deal value at pre-seed, and declining.

For GPs, the competitive picture depends on the market segment they operate in: Series A-focused managers face materially more multistage competition than those focused on pre-seed and seed.

For founders, early multistage backing opens a path to much larger follow-on checks and strategic investors on the cap table, though fit and reputation matter as much as terms given how long these relationships last.

For LPs, the shift sharpens manager evaluation: Early-stage managers no longer have one risk profile, and a GP’s strong reported marks on a big AI deal may reflect favorable entry timing as much as investment skill.

The US has several, and Asia does too. So why has Europe fallen behind?

The valuations of Europe’s top 20 companies have grown at just over a third of the pace of their global peers since 2020. The most valuable globally listed companies posted an average compound annual growth rate of 32% in market cap between June 2020 and June 2026. Europe’s top 20 managed only 12.2% in the same period.

That slower growth might suggest European companies are simply out of favor with investors. But the data tells a different story.

The problem has more to do with scale than valuation multiples. Europe’s top companies aren’t trading at a discount to global leaders. The median trailing price-to-earnings ratio is 26.8x for the global top 20, only marginally higher than Europe’s 25.9x.

The gap is due to revenue: Europe’s top 20 generates a median of $59 billion, versus $211.6 billion globally.

A lack of tech names, fragmented capital markets with multiple exchanges, softer public-market returns, and scrutiny of larger companies in Europe are factors at play.

Nonetheless, with ASML’s recent growth, Europe is as close as it has ever been to having a $1 trillion business. Based on our forecast, ASML could reach the $1 trillion mark between 2028 and 2031. And half a dozen companies could emerge as trillion-dollar businesses in the next five to 10 years, with approximately 10 trillion-dollar companies by 2038.

Read the full report for the complete top 20 rankings, growth rates, and our three-scenario growth model showing when and which European companies could join the trillion-dollar club.