Washington, DC

1. Crypto Hail Mary
2. What AI is really up to
3. Tech job fears rise
4. Bessent faces grilling
5. Manchin for Collins
6. Balkans pipeline scrutiny

PDB: SCOTUS deals Trump blow on mail voting

Blanche briefs reporters … Fed meeting kicks off … Klomp begins confirmation hearings

WH makes closing argument on crypto

The Trump administration is going all out to convince Senate Republicans to advance landmark cryptocurrency legislation over banks’ concerns. Officials plan to launch an interactive tool today that allows users “to set the parameters, run the scenarios, and see for themselves” why the Council of Economic Advisers previously concluded “there is no meaningful relationship between stablecoin growth and community bank deposit flight,” Chair Chris Phelan told Semafor. The goal: push back on banking groups, which said Monday that recent changes didn’t go far enough to make them comfortable with the bill’s stablecoin provisions. Multiple GOP lawmakers, including Sen. John Cornyn of Texas, have indicated they could take the banks’ side by voting “no” this afternoon. Crypto-friendly Democrats, meanwhile, are unhappy with the extent to which the latest text would rein in President Donald Trump.

— Eleanor Mueller, Burgess Everett, and Nicholas Wu

AI giants’ Washington defense strategy

AI companies are stirring up a maelstrom by reminding Washington of what’s been true for years: They’re not outright opposed to regulation. Some even support certain safety proposals. That’s been true since the dawn of consumer-facing AI chatbots, which didn’t have a long honeymoon period as exciting and life-changing tech. Now, as the voting public — jaded from the mid-2010s backlash to social media companies, which produced little regulation — starts internalizing the risks of AI, AI giants are evolving their approach to government. Call it recursive self-improvement, the lobbying version. The core conclusions these companies have drawn: Shaping regulation to your liking is better than trying to convince everyone you’re harmless, and fanning out to lobby state lawmakers across the country is often easier than getting Congress to do much of anything.

More Americans fear tech will take their job

There’s another reason why Americans are wary of AI: They’re afraid of losing their jobs. According to new Gallup polling, 27% of US workers worry that technology will render their jobs obsolete, a new high. Younger workers are more likely to harbor this fear; 34% of those 18 to 44 are worried about technology-related job displacement, making it the No. 1 job concern among American workers under 45, and rising shares of both college graduates and non-college workers in the US say they’re concerned. At the same time, the share of workers anxious about benefit reductions, layoffs, and lower wages and shorter hours has held stable compared with previous years. There have been some attempts in Washington to address AI-fueled job market disruptions, but policymakers have yet to unite around any one solution. And some evidence suggests AI will boost the creation of new jobs overall.

House Dems to grill Bessent on rising costs

House Democrats will challenge Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on rising costs at a Financial Services Committee hearing this morning, according to an internal memo shared with Semafor. “Key messages” include how inflation, tariffs, yields, and Iran are making life more expensive for Americans while Bessent “has shown that he is willing to move aggressively” in countries like Argentina and Japan, its authors write. Potential questions touch on a host of issues, including Russia, Iran, and Venezuela as well as tariffs, bonds, and crypto. Committee Democrats may ask Bessent to reconcile his recent declaration that “I am the house now” with mentor Stanley Druckenmiller’s skepticism of his amped-up debt buybacks, and to opine on whether those buybacks “complicate the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.” They’re also likely to request more information on how Treasury plans to shrink Iran’s shadow fleet and audit Venezuelan oil revenue.

— Eleanor Mueller

Manchin looks to campaign for Collins

Former Sen. Joe Manchin, I-W.Va., is in talks with Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, to appear at a campaign event with the incumbent GOP senator, Manchin and Collins told Semafor. Manchin raised eyebrows by endorsing Collins against Democrat Troy Jackson, marking the second consecutive cycle Manchin has backed his former colleague. He might even trek up to Vacationland this fall. “We’re still talking about that, but he’s offered to do so, which I was thrilled about. It shows how closely I have always worked in a bipartisan way that I would have a very prominent Democratic centrist going all-out for me,” Collins said. “It’s just trying to find the right event, and his availability.” Manchin said he’s “absolutely” working with Collins to find an event that will work. “You lose Susan, you lose the heart and soul of the Senate,” he said.

— Burgess Everett

Dems eye oversight of Balkans policy

Democrats on the House Foreign Affairs Committee’s Europe panel will release a report today laying the groundwork for oversight of the Trump administration’s Balkans policy should their party win a majority. The report by Rep. Bill Keating of Massachusetts, shared first with Semafor, includes a previously unreported letter raising concerns over how the administration encouraged officials in Bosnia and Herzegovina to award a key pipeline contract to a company owned by former Trump adviser Mike Flynn’s brother, Joseph Flynn. It also includes the administration’s previously unreported response to that letter, as well as to another pushing back on the decision to lift sanctions on Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik. Keating, the top Democrat on the committee’s Europe panel, was joined by every other panel Democrat as well as the top Democrat on the full committee. The panel will hold a hearing this morning on the Balkans.

— Eleanor Mueller and Adrian Elimian

Blindspot: Loans and lawsuits

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets.

What the Left isn’t reading: The Trump administration is suspending 870,000 people believed to have defrauded COVID-19 business loan programs from receiving future federal assistance, Vice President JD Vance announced.

What the Right isn’t reading: Pro-Palestinian activist Mahmoud Khalil filed a federal lawsuit accusing Columbia University of failing to address the harassment of activists like him.

United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby believes America needs “a flag carrier.” Now he is betting regulators will let him create one. On this week’s episode of The CEO Signal, presented by PwC, Kirby argues that airlines are not commodities and that greater scale could benefit customers — even as he acknowledges a fundamental obstacle to consolidation: “We can’t get it done without a willing partner, and we don’t have one.”

As a former card counter, Kirby applies poker logic to business, embracing calculated risks. He tells Penny and Andrew why United gambled on expanding its fleet during Covid, why CEOs “don’t have to be totally right,” and why their job is not to work hard, but “to think hard.”

White House

• President Trump met privately with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman at the Republican midterm convention last week to discuss AI. — MS NOW
• The president’s next target for renovations may be the World War II Memorial on the National Mall. — Washington Sun
• Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said permits for deep-sea mining of critical minerals could come in the “weeks and months ahead.”

Congress

• Top Democrats on the House Energy and Commerce Committee on Monday sent a letter to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Erica Schwartz requesting a briefing on recent measles deaths reported in Pennsylvania.
• Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., plans to introduce a bill to require AI companies to build a “kill switch” into their models.

Outside the Beltway

• New York City Council members are calling for a ban on YouTube in city schools. — WSJ
• California Gov. Gavin Newsom said he will not run for president in 2028 if Kamala Harris does.

Campaigns

• House Democrats’ campaign arm, the DCCC, added three more candidates to its “red to blue” list: Bill Hill in Alaska, Will Lawrence in Michigan, and Mitchell Berman in Wisconsin. Party leaders hadn’t initially added Lawrence to the list out of deference to the Congressional Black Caucus’ leaders, CNN had