Every day, forecasters make predictions based on the same old tools: economic fundamentals, valuation models, polls and so on. And every day, many of those predictions miss—sometimes spectacularly. The point isn’t that traditional analysts aren’t well-educated; it’s that just MAYBE what they learned is wrong. When the same methods keep producing “misses,” “unexpecteds,” and “surprises,” it's fair to wonder whether there's a better way to understand markets, politics and social trends. Elliott Wave International has spent decades exploring exactly that possibility.

Hi Elliott Waver,

Before every Fed meeting, investors and pundits wait in a state of high alert. Will the Fed raise rates? Cut them? Do nothing? They are wasting their time.

The Fed doesn’t control interest rates; it’s the other way around.

History shows that the T-bill market moves first – and the Fed follows.

On August 30, 2007, we used this reliable relationship to forecast a dramatic rate cut. Three weeks later, the Fed fulfilled our prediction. And they kept doing so until T-bill rates bottomed. This chart shows how the Fed’s rate constantly lags the T-bill rate.

This relationship has held true for decades. And not just in the U.S. – but in Europe, the U.K., and Australia, too.

Chapter 3 of The Socionomic Theory of Finance tells the full story of markets’ global dominance of interest rate policy. Read it -- FREE -- for a limited time.

Or, get on the right side of the markets ahead of time by subscribing right now.

Sincerely,

Derek Bruce
Elliott Wave International