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1. No Way Out
I’ve been wrong about Trump and Iran a few times already:
I thought he would end the war after a couple days.
I assumed the military would never undertake a war without considering the status of the Strait of Hormuz.
Once the strait was closed and it was clear that America could not reopen it, I believed Trump would declare victory and bug out.
Wrong, wrong, and wrong.
Back in July I suggested (twice) that Trump could just “declare bankruptcy” on Iran—meaning he could simply walk away. Take the hit, absorb the bad consequences, and move on to the next thing.
He didn’t take that off-ramp, either.
So I say this with some humility: I no longer believe that Trump has any optionality on Iran. He is locked into this war until, roughly, forever.
If this is correct, then we have an assload of consequences rushing downriver toward us, right now. Most of them are not very nice.
But there is a silver lining: Donald Trump is going to get absolutely dump-trucked.
And I’ll be honest: I am here for that...
