Washington, DC

1. Big money moment
2. DCCC’s new data center ad
3. Election betting boom
4. Russia mum on lab details
5. Trump touts shipyard project
6. Heating oil surges

The Cook Political Report moved three Senate races in Democrats’ direction, including shifting Kansas from “lean Republican” to “toss-up.”

GOP’s outside money advantage tested

Big Republican outside groups have a huge spending advantage in many key races, but Democrats might be able to close some of the gap if candidates continue to fundraise well in the homestretch. There’s no way Democratic groups can match outside money in places like Texas’ Senate race, but because candidates get better ad rates than super PACs, Democratic candidates’ third-quarter fundraising numbers over the next week will determine how even the airwaves will be over the final month. In New Jersey’s competitive seventh district, for example, Rebecca Bennett raised $4 million in the most recent quarter in her race against Rep. Tom Kean. “Can an enormous Republican advantage in dollars defeat an enormous Democratic advantage in candidates and in political climate?” said Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer in an interview last week. “I’d rather have the people than the money.”

— Burgess Everett

Democrats dig in on data centers in Michigan

Progressive Democrats are running even harder against AI and surveillance technologies, sensing an issue that swing voters are prioritizing this cycle — and that Republicans have struggled to talk about. In an ad shared first with Semafor, Michigan Democrat William Lawrence and the DCCC say that data centers are “wreaking havoc” on the state and that Republican Rep. Tom Barrett voted to give AI companies “tax breaks” before industry PACs supported him, a nod to a provision of the 2025 Republican tax bill that gave incentives to tech companies. In his first debate with Barrett today, Lawrence used the issue to pivot away from the congressman’s attacks on old liberal tweets he’d deleted. Lawrence also pointed out that he wants moratoriums not just on data centers, but on Flock cameras: “They’re saying: Don’t tread on us, and don’t spy on us, either.”

— David Weigel

The prediction market midterms

Kalshi’s election trading volume is higher this year than it was in 2024, the company said Tuesday, despite historically lower participation in midterms than presidential elections. The company’s election trading volume has grown six times faster this year than its football trading volume, with three in four users visiting the site without placing trades. It “feels, in some ways, like the first prediction market election, or first meaningful prediction market election,” CEO Tarek Mansour told reporters. Kalshi is rolling out new guardrails as it looks to lean into the growth, like Brier scores that will use trading volume and event timing to approximate each probability’s accuracy. It’s also reupping its work to crack down on insider trading, including by fining and suspending congressional candidates who engage in it. Executives declined to say whether they would fine or suspend additional congressional candidates before Election Day.

— Eleanor Mueller

CDC ‘closely monitoring’ suspected pneumonic plague case

Public health experts would like more information about a suspected case of pneumonic plague in Russia, but they’re not panicking. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on X they are “closely monitoring” developments and there is “no indication of a broader threat to the United States” at this time. Paul Friedrichs, who led a pandemic office under former President Joe Biden, said Russian officials could alleviate the worst fears if they shared what the researcher who died was working on, when she developed symptoms, and when she was treated with antibiotics. “What would really make me have trouble sleeping at night is if they continue to refuse to release really basic information,” Friedrichs said. “It is understandable that people will assume the worst in a scenario when it would be so easy to disprove that the worst is occurring.”

— David Lim

Defense-tech company plans multibillion-dollar shipyard in Maryland

As President Donald Trump faces headwinds on the Iran war and the US economy, he’s spotlighting an announcement this afternoon that the White House is billing as a win for the Pentagon and American jobs. Trump is appearing at Sparrows Point Shipyard outside Baltimore to announce plans by defense-tech company Anduril to invest $3.7 billion in building a new high-tech shipyard for pumping out components of the Virginia-class submarine, seen as a linchpin in countering China in the Pacific. The US Navy is awarding the company a $2.9 billion contract for the project. The idea is to turbocharge the US submarine industrial base, but the White House is also touting the job gains: The project is expected to create 3,100 jobs and support 11,000 more in the region, according to Anduril, which estimates the shipyard will be up and running by 2030.

— Morgan Chalfant

Heating bills forecasted to rise

Heating bills for American homes that rely on heating oil are expected to be about 21% higher than last winter, the Energy Information Administration projected today. While only 3% of US households primarily rely on heating oil, most are concentrated in the Northeast, including in battleground states like Maine and New Hampshire. Maine in particular could be hit hard: It has the highest proportion of homes that use heating oil, and fuel prices were nearly 80% higher in September than a year earlier. With winter rapidly approaching, that could compound political problems for Republicans, who are already facing voter frustration over rising energy costs. And the pressures go beyond heating oil: The EIA also projected Brent crude at around $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter, $14 higher than last month’s forecast.

— Lauren Morganbesser

White House

• California leaders condemned President Trump for suggesting that Iran could “take out” Los Angeles and San Diego if it developed a nuclear weapon; after backlash, the White House clarified that Trump wants to prevent Tehran from having that capability.

Congress

• Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., said the Defense Department denied him access to a key American military base in Qatar during a visit to the Middle East.

Campaigns

• New filings reveal that Republican Texas Gov. Greg Abbott is spending heavily to fend off a competitive challenge from Democrat Gina Hinojosa.
• Democratic Maryland Gov. Wes Moore said he was blocked from speaking at President Trump’s Anduril event today.

Courts

• Justice Samuel Alito said the Supreme Court is overwhelmed by rising emergency appeals and is concerned about the Trump administration’s rhetoric toward the court. — AP
• Alito also said he doesn’t plan to retire if Democrats win a majority in the Senate next month. — Bloomberg
• Lawyers for a canoeist unsuccessfully charged with vandalizing the Reflecting Pool are asking government watchdogs to investigate the conduct of senior Justice Department and Interior Department officials involved in the case. — NYT

Transportation

• The Trump administration proposed giving transit funding advantages to communities with higher birth and marriage rates.

Business

• Paramount closed its deal to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery.

Outside the Beltway

• The Nobel Prize in Physics was awarded to Francis Halzen for his work pioneering a telescope.

— Vice President JD Vance, recounting a conversation with Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Laura McGann, editor

With help from Elana Schor, senior Washington editor, and Morgan Chalfant, Washington briefing editor

Graph Massara and Lauren Morganbesser, copy editors

Contact our reporters:

Burgess Everett, Ashley Gold, Eleanor Mueller, Shelby Talcott, Nicholas Wu, David Weigel, David Lim