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A quick note: Anyone can tell you who’s up in Iowa. The harder question is what happens if Democrats actually win Iowa, and what that could mean for the Supreme Court decades from now. That’s the kind of analysis we do at The Bulwark.
If you do want to support us, you’re in luck—we’re running a 30% off sale for a limited time.
Trump’s midterm problem may be far worse than it was in 2018, and the warning signs are showing up in places Republicans never expected. Bill Kristol and veteran political analyst Ron Brownstein examine Trump’s collapsing support among core MAGA voters, the surprising Senate races emerging in deep-red states, and how a Democratic wave could reshape the Supreme Court for decades.

