A closer look at the US-Russia diesel deal...
October 12, 2026View Online | Sign Up | Shop
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Mornin’. Hope you got to sleep in a bit today. But also, don’t forget to set your alarm back to early o’clock for work tomorrow.

—Holly Van Leuven, Brendan Cosgrove

In today’s newsletter, we’ll get into:

  • Unpacking the global diesel situation
  • The aftermath of two attacks on Riyadh’s airport
  • The NBA planning to get in on chips

Markets: Year-to-Date

Nasdaq

27,366.17

S&P

7,811.54

Dow

51,654.95

10-Year

5.244%

Bitcoin

$83,538.96

Humana

$431.87

Data is provided by

*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 12:00am ET. Here's what these numbers mean.

  • Markets: Traders are working through today’s holiday, with an eye toward upcoming bank earnings and inflation data (more on those later). The stock market is open for regular hours today, but bond markets are closed.
  • Stock spotlight: Humana shareholders are still probably doing a little dance today after the stock jumped more than 11.5% on Friday, thanks to positive data on its Medicare Advantage plans.

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The Fed raised rates and online banks now offer APYs up to 4.20%, over 11x the national average. The Motley Fool just released the top five high-yield accounts. Check them out.

energy transfer

A closer look at the US-Russia diesel deal

a woman in front of a closed Russian gas station

A woman in front of a closed Russian gas station. Contributor/Getty Images

This weekend, lawmakers and energy experts responded to President Trump’s announcement that Russian diesel would enter the US and global markets to lower fuel prices. Their reactions mostly ranged from skepticism to condemnation. Russian officials and one US lawmaker (Rep. Thomas Massie) voiced support.

ICYMI: Trump said on Truth Social on Friday that after a “successful discussion” with Russian President Vladimir Putin, millions of tons of Russian diesel would hit the market in the coming weeks, meaning prices “will be COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST!”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky criticized the news, which drew Trump’s ire. On Saturday, Trump told reporters that Zelensky “wants to make problems for the world. I think it’s time for Ukraine to get a new president.” Ukraine’s allies rallied around Zelensky following the comment.

The backstory

Diesel prices have increased 68% since the Iran war began on Feb. 28, according to AAA data. Currently, the US national average price of diesel is $6.28/gallon. The week before the war began, it was $3.76/gallon.

But Trump blames Ukraine striking Russian diesel plants in mid- and long-range missile attacks for the price increases:

  • In the four years since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Ukrainian military has honed a strategy of targeting critical components within Russian oil refineries that are difficult to repair.
  • As a result, Russia is experiencing its worst fuel crisis since the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991.

State of play

Experts don’t think diesel prices will decrease meaningfully because of the deal, partially because the amounts mentioned in Trump’s initial announcement aren’t enough to move markets.

Yesterday, a bipartisan group of senators released a statement calling for Trump to “immediately reverse course,” saying Putin shouldn’t get “a financial lifeline while Russia continues to kill Ukrainian civilians.”

Zoom out: Earlier yesterday, Trump said on Truth Social that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an energy ceasefire. Zelensky told the media that this was news to him. On ABC’s This Week, his message to Russia was, “Don’t attack us. Don’t kill our children. We will stop attack your diesel.”—HVL

World

Tour de headlines

King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh

The King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh prior to this weekend’s attacks. Getty Images