Good afternoon! Republicans in tough races keep finding new ways to edge away from President Trump. It’s time for our weekly assessment of the race for control of Congress. I’ll be back tomorrow. — Jess Bidgood
The Republican Party’s hopes of saving its majorities in Congress increasingly appear to depend on a few possible outcomes: that G.O.P. advantages in money and on the map pay off; that the polls are wrong; or that a major news development suddenly brightens the party’s prospects. In the meantime, Republicans in competitive races are doing whatever they can to try to loosen their ties to President Trump’s agenda, which is dragging their party down with just over three weeks to go before the midterm elections. There have been new ads stating opposition to Trump’s tariffs from candidates who supported them, calls to end the war in Iran from candidates who backed it and efforts to look bipartisan from candidates who pledged to be Trump’s top allies. The debates last week made clear that Republicans are on the back foot. Questions about high prices, tariffs and the war dominated the sessions in battleground states. While G.O.P. advertising often aims to link Democrats to their party’s left-wing figures and stoke disputes about transgender athletes, cost-of-living issues are paramount to voters this year. Trump’s rhetoric is not helping his party. Even as his own approval ratings have plummeted, he urges voters to pretend that he is on the ballot. He touts data centers that are even less popular than he is. And he has shown no inclination to back off from his positions on the war in Iran or tariffs. But then there is the money. Thanks to Trump’s super PACs and well-heeled political allies, Republicans still hold a commanding financial advantage. The billionaire Elon Musk has directed more than $276 million to Republicans since the start of July. Republicans hope that will help them pull through on a House map they had sought to redraw in their favor and a Senate map that features plenty of races in red states. But the time to change minds and move votes is shrinking by the day. The battle for the Senate
Republicans have all but conceded the race in North Carolina to Roy Cooper, a popular former governor. In Georgia, the Democratic incumbent, Senator Jon Ossoff, has a commanding lead over Representative Mike Collins. And now Democrats are on offense in deep-red Kansas, with Senate Majority PAC, the party’s main super PAC, beginning $5 million worth of ads in the state. Democratic candidates are leading or running neck and neck in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas — all places Trump won three times by substantial margins. He and Vice President JD Vance have aimed to energize the base with appearances in those states, but the polls suggest the Democrats are holding their own. In the eyes of Senator Chuck Schumer, the minority leader, Democrats have a chance to take back the majority because of his recruiting efforts. In an interview Friday, he claimed credit for getting Cooper, former Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio and former Representative Mary Peltola of Alaska into their races, and for helping Josh Turek win his primary in Iowa. “I couldn’t accept the map as is because the map as is consigns us to a minority, all things being equal, just because of the way the states are structured,” Schumer said. “So we had to expand the map. I didn’t accept the original map. I worked to build a better one.” Still, some Democrats worry about Senate races that ought to be easier for them. Contests remain tight in Maine, Michigan and New Hampshire. The race for the House
Things do not look promising for Republicans’ hopes of retaining their House majority. The Cook Political Report on Friday shifted 18 districts toward Democrats. Two Iowa seats, held by Representatives Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks, are now considered “lean Democratic.” That is in addition to Republicans already punting on the Nebraska district held by the retiring Representative Don Bacon. Representative Tom Emmer, the House majority whip, said the issue is that Republican voters may be too “satisfied” with Trump to vote in November. “The midterms, you typically have the party that wins the White House is satisfied,” Emmer said Sunday on ABC’s “This Week.” “If our people will turn out — you may be satisfied, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t vote. You show up and vote, we’re going to be fine.” Democrats need to flip just three seats to take a House majority. Many election forecasters now suggest they will do much better than that. During a discussion last week, Representative Hakeem Jeffries, the minority leader, repeatedly declined to predict how many seats his party would win. He did, however, suggest that Democrats would be able to repeat their successes from 2018, the last midterm with Trump in the White House. “Past performance is not evidence of future results,” he said. “But it provides at least a path for us to ascertain what is possible.” You can find our tracker, which has details on all the close races for Congress, here. GET CAUGHT UP
ONE POLL NUMBER 76 percentThat’s the percentage of Ohio voters who said Trump’s policies have increased the cost of living in the state in a CNN/SSRS poll. The poll found Brown, the Democrat, up by 6 percentage points over Senator Jon Husted, the Republican. Trump and Vance have both visited the state recently in an attempt to boost support for Husted. IN ONE MAP
In five states with competitive Senate races, at least 615,100 ballots have already been cast. See how these numbers compare to the 2022 midterm election. ON THE ISSUES Trump’s Russian diesel planTrump’s latest idea to bring down gas prices — importing diesel fuel from Russia — got a chilly reception from some of his fellow Republicans, including a few in battleground races. Former Representative Mike Rogers of Michigan and Senator Dan Sullivan of Alaska, who are both locked in tight Senate races, panned the idea. Representative Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania said on Saturday that he would force a vote to block Russian oil purchases. The U.S. has forbidden importing Russian fuel since 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine. TOP TALKER Talarico’s returnAfter vanishing from the campaign trail for nine days, James Talarico, the Texas Democrat running for Senate, emerged at the Austin City Limits music festival Friday. He said he’d been home sick with the flu. Talarico’s Republican opponent, Ken Paxton, had been making hay out of Talarico’s whereabouts. What is next in the Texas campaign is unclear: Talarico on Saturday challenged Paxton to debate, and Trump has suggested Paxton should do so. But Paxton has yet to agree. QUOTE OF THE WEEK
“If John Lewis were marching today from Selma to Montgomery, Mike Collins would be grabbing a billy club.” — Senator Jon Ossoff of GeorgiaOssoff pulled no punches in his debate attacks on Representative Mike Collins, his Republican opponent in Georgia’s Senate race. He said Collins had “hired half the Third Reich,” a reference to Collins hiring aides who have espoused white nationalist and antisemitic views. Collins responded that he had “condemned racism, antisemitism, hate.” | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
