October Surprise: 30% OFF Bulwark+ for a year. Upgrade now. |
Before we start: Yesterday a local ABC affiliate in Harris County, Texas released video of an ICE vehicle running over a pedestrian. This incident is unremarkable. ICE agents maiming and killing people on public streets has become the norm.
What makes this notable is that when contacted by reporters, ICE released a statement saying that the man “ran in front of [an ICE] vehicle and was struck.”
This is a lie. The man was running in a line away from the ICE truck. The ICE truck followed him and ran him down.
He did not run in front of the ICE vehicle.
He was running ahead of the ICE vehicle, which followed him and struck him.
It is not enough that armed agents of the state are injuring and killing people with no legal accountability; the state is then lying about these incidents, too.
Regular order is over. No factual statements from the U.S. government can be presumed to be true.
When you extrapolate from this reality, the potential consequences are pretty bad.
 |
1. Russia Russia Russia
I want to be sure everyone understands what Donald Trump has done with Russia and diesel, and why. Because it points to just how dangerous the American president is.
The easiest way to do this it to wind back the clock and just take the events in order. That’s the “what.” Then we’ll get to “why” in #2.
September 18, 2026: President Trump signs into law the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, which requires the president to levy additional tariffs and sanctions against Russian energy exports. The president can choose not to do so, but only if, beforehand, he sends to Congress “a certification in writing that the issuance of the waiver is in the national interests of the United States; and . . . a report explaining the basis for the certification.”
September 23: Reports surface that Trump is planning to ban U.S. exports of diesel. Trump later abandons this idea.
October 5: Trump signs an executive order allowing “red-dyed diesel” to be used on road vehicles. “Red-dyed diesel” is indistinguishable from commercial diesel, except that it has been dyed red in order to mark it for use only in farm equipment. This is a tax carve-out for farmers that exempts red-dyed diesel from the federal 24.4 cent highway tax. Why didn’t Trump just suspend the federal tax on diesel, instead of using this gimmick? Who can say.
October 9: Trump announces (on Truth Social, obvi) that he was lifting sanctions against the import of Russian diesel.
It was agreed that Russia will immediately supply over 300,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel to the American and Global Marketplace, another 500,000 Tons during the month of November, and 1,000,000 Tons immediately thereafter. Additionally, based on the condition of their Diesel Refineries, Russia will then deliver, within a short period of time, 3,000,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel.
You’re probably thinking, Wait a minute. Why is he talking about “tons”? Aren’t petroleum products typically measured in barrels?
Boy are you going to laugh: Trump framed his announcement in tons because it makes the numbers look bigger. When you convert tons to barrels of diesel you get:
72,000 barrels/day in October
124,000 in November;
Between 240,000 and 720,000 in the following months
Now let me put that in context: According to the NYT, in the last three months of 2025, Russia exported about 800,000 barrels a day.
And no, Trump did not send a message to Congress explaining that he was waiving the sanctions on Russia.
October 10: Trump accuses Ukraine of making “problems for the world” by striking Russian energy infrastructure and says that the Ukrainian president should be replaced.
October 11: Trump announces that Ukraine and Russia have agreed to an “energy ceasefire.” Russia continues attacks on Ukrainian energy plants that same day. Ukraine says it has no idea what Trump is talking about.
In sum:
For three weeks Trump has been desperately casting about for a way to lower diesel prices.
His ideas all fall under the category bandaids-on-bullet holes.
Also: Trump’s deal to restore Russian exports is almost certainly illegal under the law he signed less than a month ago.
And now, let’s be clear why he is doing all of this.
2. Stupid, Desperate, and Weak
Obviously Trump is panicked about the election. Panicked because accountability...