The last election left Republicans with a bare-bones majority in the House: 220 seats to 215 for Democrats. That means a net loss of just three seats in November would cost them control. Historically speaking, this puts the GOP up against it, since the president’s party almost always takes a hit in midterm elections.
This, of course, was the case for President Donald Trump and Republicans during his first term, in 2018. Back then, Trump’s average approval rating was about 43%, and Republicans lost a net of 40 House seats. Right now, it sits under 40%, according to the NBC News polling average. So by one key metric, the president and his party are in worse shape this time around.
But the playing field also looks much different today from eight years ago. In 2018, dozens of vulnerable House Republicans sat in districts that had sided against Trump in the previous presidential election. Now, Republican incumbents are better insulated, and the GOP has more opportunities to turn the tables and pick up Democratic seats. That means a blue tide as strong as the one in 2018 wouldn’t necessarily produce the same size majority.
Let’s break down how the ’26 and ’18 landscapes compare.
