Hi Jan,
Most of us spent years in school learning that a 95 was an A. So when a retirement projection comes back with a 95% probability of success, it's natural to feel like the work is done.
This week, we look at what a Monte Carlo success rate actually measures and what it leaves out. Two plans can earn the same score and still look very different when things go wrong. In one, a shortfall shows up in your mid 90s. In the other, it arrives more than a decade earlier. We also look at how assumptions about returns and planning age can move the number without anything in your real life changing. Finally, we explain why chasing a higher score can mean giving up things that matter more to you than the grade.
| | | | What Does a 95% Success Rate Really Mean? Most of us have spent our lives being evaluated on a scale of 0 to 100. From elementary school through college, we learned that higher scores meant better results. A 95 was an A, a 75 was a C, and anything below 60 usually meant we had some work to do.
By Retirement Researcher | | | | Making Confident Retirement Decisions When There Is No “Right” Answer One of the most unsettling moments in retirement planning is realizing there is no single right answer.
You can run the numbers, follow the rules, and read the research, yet still find yourself facing multiple reasonable paths forward. Different advisors may offer confident but conflicting recommendations. Articles may point in opposite directions. Each approach may be defensible, but none feels definitive. This is not a failure of planning. It is the nature of retirement.
By McLean Asset Management
| | | | Do Annuities Actually Improve Retirement Outcomes What the Math Says
Alex and I answer more of your questions in this episode. We cover whether a buffer asset fits a total returns approach, whether you really need to replace 80% of your income, and what today's elevated CAPE ratio means for withdrawal rates. We also explain why we call annuities insurance rather than investments, and why adding one could lower a Monte Carlo success rate.
| | | | | | | | Our joint webinar with McLean Asset Management is this Monday, and there's still time to save your seat.
AI is changing how scammers operate. Phishing emails, phone calls, and even voices can now be convincing enough to | | | |
