| The World Trade Organization’s first General Council meeting since Donald Trump was sworn in for a second term as US president gets underway Tuesday and will stretch into Wednesday with an agenda for the closed-door session that’s 15 items long. Some of those will be routine progress reports on initiatives like the “work program on small economies” and the “dialogue on sustainable agriculture.” Buried in the middle of the list is agenda item No. 8, which sounds like the best opportunity for drama: “Heightened Trade Turbulence and Responses from the WTO — Request from China.” It’s a safe bet Beijing will chide the new US administration’s decision to impose a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports on Feb. 4. Soon after those levies kicked in, China retaliated and asked for dispute consultations at the trade body, saying Trump’s moves “not only violate WTO rules, but are discriminatory and protectionist in nature.” What’s less certain: Who will come to the US’s defense after Trump’s announcement last week that he’s pursuing reciprocal tariffs — a major departure from the WTO’s “most favored nation” rules that frown on country-by-country punishment or favoritism. European allies are feeling especially burned by signals from the White House on everything from steel tariffs to NATO security commitments. (The European Commission just released a fact sheet on the issue of reciprocal tariffs.) Trump’s Nominee Trump hasn’t publicly chastised the WTO itself during his first month in office, but some observers already see him bulldozing the rules-based global trading system. His nominee to be deputy US Trade Representative stationed in Geneva — Joseph Barloon, a former adviser at USTR to Robert Lighthizer — did little to dispel that notion. “Inevitably, opinion is divided between those who fret and those who discount the bluster,” said Simon Evenett, a professor of geopolitics and strategy at IMD Business School in Switzerland. “Below the radar the following question is being asked: What constructive purpose is served by continued US WTO membership?” Some countries, especially those in the European Union, have a lot to lose if Trump follows through on threats to retreat from the principles of multilateralism in his effort to address the US’s bilateral trade imbalances. Take Ireland, where international commerce has “lifted all boats,” according to Taoiseach Micheal Martin. Read More: Irish Exports Hit Record in 2024 on Medical, Pharma Goods Martin has his talking points memorized to counter any grief from Washington about the fact that Ireland’s merchandise trade surplus with the US is now larger than Germany’s. “We’re the sixth-largest investor into the United States, in FDI terms, which is not readily known. We’ve got a lot of good Irish companies already there creating 100,000 jobs and so forth,” he told Bloomberg’s Francine Lacqua at the Munich Security Conference over the weekend. “And likewise, US companies create a lot of jobs in Ireland and they have access to the single market.” Services and Goods If the transatlantic trading relationship is viewed through services as well as goods trade, the US’s deficit with Europe is “quite small,” Martin added. “We need to be careful that we don’t upset the rhythm of what I think is a good relationship.” Some damage is already being inflicted. EU Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis told a news conference on Monday following a meeting of euro-area finance ministers that the uncertainty clouding the economic outlook is already taking a toll. Read More: London’s Khan Calls for Closer EU Ties in Face of Trump Tariffs “We regret the recent announcement of tariff measures and will be ready to respond in a firm and proportionate way,” he said. “The uncertainty relating to our trade policies has substantially increased and is already having a negative impact on the global economy, including on the US. But also the EU is affected.” Germany would be particularly hard hit by US protectionism and trade tariffs, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said. Still, others view Trump’s aggressive approach as way to motivate trading partners and attract investment to the US. “He sees that tariffs are a very powerful tool for inducing people to come to the bargaining table and be serious about things,” William Lee, chief economist at the Milken Institute, told Bloomberg TV this week. —Brendan Murray in London Click here for more of Bloomberg.com’s most-read stories about trade, supply chains and shipping. | 
