Welcome to CFR’s Daily News Brief. Today, we’re covering the election in Europe’s biggest economy, as well as...
The U.S. Treasury chief’s first call with China How identification of a Hamas-held hostage may threaten the truce
India’s surging air pollution and its effect on insurance
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Germans are heading into a weekend election marked by a surging far right and a fluid debate about the country’s military role in Europe. Center-left Chancellor Olaf Scholz triggered snap elections in December after losing a confidence vote. His ideologically diverse coalition had clashed over spending, and Germany’s economy was performing sluggishly. In the weeks since, campaign debates have also focused on Germany’s immigration policies, the role of the far right in politics, and German foreign policy as Europe faces growing distance from Washington.
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The AfD factor. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has become Germany’s second-most popular political force among voters, according to recent polls. It has championed strict anti-migrant stances and pushed back against climate policies. In spite of its popularity, other parties have generally supported blocking the AfD from Germany’s ruling coalition, a practice dubbed the “firewall” with decades-old roots in trying to block far-right or Nazi parties from regaining power. Last Friday, U.S. Vice President JD Vance criticized the firewall approach at the Munich Security Conference, saying it ran counter to free speech—remarks that drew pushback from Berlin. Elon Musk has also praised the AfD during the election.
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The great power factor. As the Donald Trump administration has clashed with Ukraine and signaled new differences from Europe, national security has gained a bigger role in the election. Friedrich Merz, the center-right frontrunner for prime minister, says Europe must be united to deal confidently with Trump and that Germany should pull more weight as a regional leader. He has supported sending long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine when Scholz did not, and has also called for tougher positions on China.
The coalition factor. If Merz is victorious, a likely coalition partner could be the center left. Much would depend on whether centrist parties would be able to better cooperate than during the outgoing government. But some analysts have argued that Germany has no choice but to get its house in order in the face of geopolitical uncertainty.
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“Without a stable, centrist government pushing for reforms, Germany will continue its economic slide and embolden the far right, it will become a country that no one—not its politicians, its citizens, or its partners—wants. Merz may have been [former Prime Minister Angela] Merkel’s rival, but to successfully lead the country, he should adopt her commitment to compromise. If he does, he has a chance to turn the corner at home and lead a German comeback abroad,” CFR expert Liana Fix and the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress’s Peter Sparding write for Foreign Affairs . |
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In a Media Briefing yesterday, CFR experts Stephen Sestanovich, Thomas Graham, and Charles A. Kupchan unpacked what the dizzying events of the last week say about Trump’s approach to Europe and the global security order. |
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Blowback over body from Gaza. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed a response today to what he called a “cruel and malicious violation” of the cease-fire with Hamas. Israel says a body returned yesterday was not that of Shiri Bibas, as Hamas claimed. Hamas said it would “conduct a thorough review” of information about the body and that Bibas’ remains appear to have been mixed with those of other people in a bombed building. Meanwhile, Israel stepped up countrywide security and West Bank raids following the explosions of three empty buses near Tel Aviv yesterday, while Arab leaders are meeting in Saudi Arabia today to discuss a plan for postwar Gaza.
U.S. Treasury chief’s call with China. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng voiced “serious concerns” over new U.S. tariffs in his conversation today with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent today, Chinese media reported. Ahead of the call, Bessent said he would emphasize a desire to “work together” and reduce the flow of fentanyl precursor ingredients from China. He added he would eventually urge Beijing to “rebalance their economy in favor of consumption.” Trump told reporters this week that a new trade deal with China was “possible;” the New York Times reported that the president is open to a wide-ranging trade and investment agreement.
Twilight for Hong Kong pro-democracy party. The Democratic Party, the region’s oldest political party, decided yesterday to begin its dissolution process. Its chairman cited the “overall political environment in Hong Kong.” The number of democratically elected seats in Hong Kong’s legislature was slashed after Beijing imposed a strict national security law in the region in 2020.
BBC shuttered in Azerbaijan. The government ordered the closure of BBC’s office in the country but said it will allow one correspondent to remain. The broadcaster “deeply regret[s] this restrictive move against press freedom,” it said, while Azerbaijan’s foreign ministry said Baku “is always guided by the principle of reciprocity.” At least twenty independent media workers are jailed in the country, according to Reporters Without Borders.
India’s pollution insurance premium. Insurance companies are weighing hiking their prices by 10 to 15 percent for New Delhi residents after a rise in air pollution-related claims last year, nine unnamed executives told Reuters. The country’s regulator for insurance did not respond to a request for comment. Respiratory health claims in the state of Delhi rose 8.3 percent between fiscal years 2023 and 2025, according to a report by Boston Consulting Group and Medi Assist.
From Guantánamo to Venezuela. Almost two hundred Venezuelan migrants previously held at the U.S. base at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, were flown to Venezuela yesterday with a stopover in Honduras. The migrants had been the subject of a lawsuit that sought to provide them with access to lawyers and family visits while at the U.S. base. In a court filing also released yesterday, a U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement official said the detainees had been granted phone access to attorneys.
Impending U.S. steel, aluminum duties. An analysis of the new 25 percent U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum scheduled for March 12 identified 123 products due to be affected, Nikkei reported. That’s up from nine products that are currently subject to a 10 percent tariff. The new items to be hit include parts for aircrafts and chipmaking equipment. Japan’s economy and trade minister plans to visit Washington as early as March for trade talks.
French officers in Ivory Coast. Around eighty French military personnel will remain in Ivory Coast after Paris handed over control of its military base in the country, the French defense minister said. The troops would be the base of a joint force responsive to local needs, he added. Burkina Faso, Chad, Niger, and Senegal have all asked French troops to leave in recent years; the French military maintains deployments in Djibouti and Gabon.
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The Group of Twenty (G20), an informal gathering of many of the world’s largest economies, is the premier global forum for discussing economic issues. This Backgrounder looks at the divisions it faces over trade, climate change, and the war in Ukraine. |
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Beijing has tightened its grip on Hong Kong in recent years, dimming hopes that the financial center will ever become a full democracy. This Backgrounder by Lindsay Maizland and CFR’s Clara Fong discusses the erosion of freedoms in the region. |
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