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Also: Introducing the Morningstar PitchBook Buyout Replication Index; PE reaches new heights in aerospace & defense; Biopharma VC ecosystem matures...
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The Research Pitch
February 22, 2025
Presented by Fidelity Private SharesSM
Where PE is booming: PE deal count in the aerospace & defense sector reached new heights last year, countering broader industry sluggishness. Exits also hit new highs. What's driving all this? Access our research.

Biopharma VC matures: Venture activity in biopharma consolidated in 2024, with deal count down 12% YoY but deal value up 20%. Obesity treatments and AI-driven drug discovery emerged as key themes. Access our research.

Popular reads: In case you missed them, here are three of our most-read notes over the past month:

 • US VC-Backed IPO Expectations
 • Potential Impact of Tariffs on the Tech Ecosystem
 • Benchmarking and Returns: Why Are There So Many Numbers?
 
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Introducing the Morningstar PitchBook Buyout Replication Index
At the end of the day, equity is equity.

That was one of the themes during our recent lively conversation with Third Wire's Daniel Harms and Educational Alpha's (and CAIA's former CEO) Bill Kelly.

The sentiment also underpins the thought process behind our latest innovation in collaboration with Morningstar's Index team, the Morningstar PitchBook Buyout Replication Index (BRI).

PE buyout strategies have long been regarded as an alternative asset class, yet their fundamental investment principles closely resemble those of traditional public equity strategies.

At their core, both involve the ownership of corporate earnings, with sector and security selection playing key roles in generating alpha. With that framework, we created the BRI using a data-driven approach to track the risk-return profile of PE buyouts using publicly traded equities.

The index methodology was developed by my colleague, Andrew Akers, using machine learning techniques trained on historical take-private transaction data, quarterly financial statements, and stock price history to identify US public companies that share key characteristics with traditional buyout targets.

Unlike commonly used public equity benchmarks, the BRI systematically captures PE's sector tilts, leverage effects, and security selection tendencies, particularly of buyout megafunds, and adjustments for leverage exposure further enhance the model.

This will allow investors to track a portfolio of companies that mirror the buyout investment style—but with the transparency, liquidity, and daily pricing of public markets.

The BRI also aims to address a persistent challenge in PE investing: the lack of a reliable public benchmark equivalent. Traditional public market indices fail to reflect PE's unique characteristics, and our PME analysis has found that buyout funds launched between 2014 and 2018 performed roughly in line with the Index, unlike the Morningstar US Small Cap Extended Index.
 
The BRI tracks closer to buyout funds than standard indexes.

Encouragingly, in a backtest starting in 2014 and running through November 2024, the BRI would have handily outperformed the Morningstar US Small Cap Extended Index by 6.1 percentage points on an annualized basis.

By systematically identifying and tracking buyout-like opportunities in public markets, the BRI offers a new perspective on the long-held notion that private equity is fundamentally distinct from public investing.

In reality, many of the key drivers of PE returns can be captured outside of closed-door private transactions and without the illiquidity, lockups, and performance fees that often accompany traditional buyout funds.

Read more about the BRI in our latest note: Introducing the Morningstar PitchBook Buyout Replication Index

You can learn more about Third Wire's fund launched to track the index here.
 
Have a great weekend,

Zane Carmean, CFA, CAIA
Director, Quantitative Research
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Risk premiums are shrinking
Investors have long allocated capital to risky assets based on an expectation that the potential reward outweighs the additional risks.

But what happens when that reward gets smaller and smaller?

That is the challenge facing investors today. Over the past decade, we have seen expected risk premiums compress across public and private markets.

As compensation for taking risk decreases, allocators may need to change playbooks to continue to meet their goals.
 
Click to view a larger version of this chart.

As risk premiums have shifted, credit premiums have proved more resilient compared to equities. This narrowing of the premium gap indicates that, relative to 12-year averages, credit risk appears more attractive.

This dynamic is also evident on the efficient frontier, where the riskier end of the curve has flattened significantly, suggesting that higher-risk assets aren't delivering the same returns or diversification benefits as in the past.

Fortunately for today's allocators, base rates are elevated and have significantly lifted the return proposition of lower-risk assets like cash equivalents and core bonds. However, these safer options are unlikely to fully meet most return objectives, compelling allocators to pursue riskier assets.

Data shows pension funds responding to this challenge by increasing allocations to PE while simultaneously reducing exposure to public equity. Given the narrowing of the premium gap between equity and credit, we'd also expect credit risk to become a greater part of the portfolio.

For more analysis, download our free report: Quantitative Perspectives: US Market Insights.

PitchBook clients can read the full version of this commentary in our dedicated workspace.
 
Thanks,

Nathan Schwartz
Sr. Quantitative Research Analyst
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