Wall Street Week
Supply chain challenges in autos, chips
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Bloomberg
by David Westin

Welcome to the Wall Street Week newsletter, giving you some investing food for thought from our conversations on Bloomberg Television with some of the best minds on Global Wall Street. I'm David Westin, and this week we told the stories of what new Trump tariffs could do to the auto industry and the hurdles we have to get over if we're going to get what we want out of artificial intelligence. If you’re not yet a subscriber, sign up here for this newsletter.

Co-dependent auto industry

First, President Trump threatened and then suspended 25% tariffs on products imported from Canada and Mexico; then he promised 25% tariffs on all automobiles imported into the United States. Either way the effect on the US auto industry could be profound. Ellen Hughes-Cromwick was chief economist at Ford before she went to serve in the Obama Commerce Department. She told us, “I think those tariffs would be absolutely crippling, and I'm not exaggerating.” When it comes to Canada and Mexico, tariffs would disrupt an integrated supply chain that sees auto parts go back and forth across the border many times before final assembly. And, this comes against the backdrop of U.S. automakers competing with producers from around the world. As a former NEC deputy director under President Trump puts it, “We need to remember that the US auto industry doesn't sit in isolation. We're part of a global economy and there's a lot of other actors in the world.”

The effects are already being seen in U.S. auto stock prices, but they could be more profound for the economy overall, given what the industry means for the country.

Hurdles in the AI race

Last year, the so-called “Godfather of AI,” Nobel laureate Geoffrey Hinton, told us that generative AI "will be a wonderful thing for productivity,” though he warned that “the rich and big companies are going to get much richer, and ordinary people are probably going to be worse off because they'll lose their jobs.” Whatever the ultimate effects on the economy and society, AI first has to get up to speed, literally and figuratively, and the man who wrote the book about semiconductor capacity says it's not just about how much money we spend.
 

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