Former US Trade Representative Katherine Tai came prepared on the eve of President Donald Trump’s big tariff announcement to talk about lumber — as a metaphor, not a trade war target.

For veteran trade negotiators, she said tariffs are like the planks used to frame buildings — by themselves “morally neutral” and actually pretty boring. What matters is whether they’re used constructively or destructively.

Read More: Trump’s Tariff Plans Still in Limbo Ahead of Rose Garden Event

“You could take a bunch of 2-by-4s and you could build something. If you’ve got an architect’s blueprint in hand, you could build a deck, a house, a factory,” she said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “Or you could take a pile of 2-by-4s and you could pick them up and you could swing them around your head and you could run down the street and break peoples’ windows with that 2-by-4 or threaten to beat people up with it.”

Former USTR Katherine Tai on Bloomberg TV

Tai noted Trump’s “incredible showman instincts” in hosting a Rose Garden ceremony about tariffs on Wednesday and managing to make an otherwise mundane accessory in a trade-policy toolbelt “really, really exciting.”

Tai laid out several things she’ll be looking for in the White House announcement:

• What legal authority is invoked? An international economic emergency declaration could be the basis for nearly immediate tariffs, she said, but using another legal framework could mean it takes more time to establish the basis for the import duties.
• What’s the product and country scope of tariffs? “Is it on everything under the sun” or is it focused on products, sectors and specific industries, she said, and will all or a limited number of trading partners be targeted?
• What’s level are the tariffs? Whether reciprocal tariff rates are “nice round numbers” like 10%, 25, 0r 50% or more precise figures like 17% or 19% will shed light on “whether or not any economic analysis has gone into the design of those tariffs.”

“Is there a house that we’re trying to build, or a factory that we’re trying to build?” Tai asked. “Or is it all just a giant performance of drama?” 

—Brendan Murray in London

Bloomberg’s tariff tracker follows all the twists and turns of global trade wars. Click here for more of Bloomberg.com’s most-read stories about trade, supply chains and shipping.

Charted Territory

Auto sales | With its showrooms vandalized, production lines paused and sales tanking overseas, Tesla has had a brutal start to 2025. The automaker is about to reveal just how rough it was.

Trump’s reciprocal tariffs have sparked fears of a US recession and a global slowdown, as well as the end of a post-war order. How are governments preparing and how are markets reacting? Join us for a Live Q&A on Thursday, April 3 at 11 a.m. EDT.

Today’s Must Reads

• Walmart is continuing to push Chinese suppliers to cut prices to offset Trump’s tariffs, even after Beijing officials summoned the US retailer’s executives last month to discuss the issue.
• Maersk said shipping volumes show that the US market grew in the first quarter of the year.
• China’s top diplomat called on the US to remove tariffs it imposed on Chinese goods for Beijing’s alleged role in America’s fentanyl crisis before holding any talks on the matter. Meanwhile, Chinese officials are urging young people to attend vocational schools instead of pursuing a college degree, to address the shortage of skilled laborers and rising social discontent.
• The Trump administration’s plan to challenge China’s maritime dominance and usher through a change in the shipbuilding industry will likely be a decades-long effort, according to the chief of the Port of Los Angeles.
• Vietnam plans to send another top official and business delegation to the US this weekend in a sign of the furious behind-the-scenes activity taking place as major trading partners anticipate Trump’s tariff rollout. Meanwhile, Thailand pledged to narrow its trade surplus with the US by importing more energy and food products.
• Indian auto parts makers, already struggling with weak domestic demand, now face the risk of losing sales in their top overseas market as Trump’s looming import tariffs ripple through global car manufacturing.
• Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said US tariffs could have a significant impact on trade activity in affected nations. Separately, the Chicago Fed president warned of the negative consequences of any slowdown in consumer spending or business investment due to tariff-related uncertainty.

On the Bloomberg Terminal

• As the trade war intensifies, Bloomberg Economics models predict that the surge in uncertainty alone will curb US industrial production by 1.1% by the second quarter of next year. For the global economy, the hit is almost 1.7%, relative to the baseline. 
• South Korea is unlikely to avoid getting caught in the net of US tariffs on trading partners that Trump plans to unveil, according to Bloomberg Economics.
• For Bloomberg Economics trade analysis: BECO MODELS TRADE
• Run SPLC after an equity ticker on Bloomberg to show critical data about a company's suppliers, customers and peers.
• Use the AHOY function to track global commodities trade flows.
• See DSET CHOKE for a dataset to monitor shipping chokepoints. 
• For freight dashboards, see BI RAIL, BI TRCK and BI SHIP and BI 3PLS
• Click HERE for automated stories about supply chains.
• On the Bloomberg Terminal, type NH FWV for FreightWaves content.
• See BNEF for BloombergNEF’s analysis of clean energy, advanced transport, digital industry, innovative materials, and commodities.

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