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Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up here.

Back in November, Romanians stunned Europe by voting for a little-known far-right conspiracy theorist with pro-Russia views as their president.

Călin Georgescu’s shock first-round victory was subsequently overturned by a court due to outside interference, and he was barred from running in the election rescheduled for May 4. Campaigning officially begins today. 

What might seem like a local scandal in a mid-sized eastern European nation has since taken on global significance.

Călin Georgescu, center, outside the Bucharest Court of Appeal in December. Photographer: Andrei Pungovschi/Bloomberg

Elon Musk took up Georgescu’s case with supportive posts on X. US Vice President JD Vance cited Romania’s annulled election as an example of Europe’s democratic backsliding.

Georgescu shot to overnight prominence on TikTok. His instant success triggered suspicion, and Romanian authorities named Russia as having attempted to influence the election — accusations that Moscow denies.

Polls now show a clear lead for another far-right candidate, George Simion, who is openly skeptical of aiding Romania’s eastern neighbor Ukraine.

To Bucharest Mayor Nicușor Dan, an independent who has also joined the running, it’s a reflection of the “rage” felt in society over corruption and compounded by the established parties’ complacency.

The election outcome “was the first time that we have a critical mass saying clearly we want a change,” Dan said in an interview in the Romanian capital this week. That is an opportunity but also poses dangers, he said.

He ascribed the mood to profoundly differing visions of the world between an inherently conservative populace and progressive “elites,” a political gulf that’s only growing across Europe and in the US.

Dan, a mathematician by profession who takes the middle ground, portrays himself as Romania’s best hope. He’s focusing his campaign on social media, and polls suggest he’d win if he makes it to a runoff due May 18.

His solution: “We have to earn the trust of the people step by step.” — Alan Crawford

Nicușor Dan, mayor of Bucharest. Photographer: Andrei Pungovschi/Bloomberg

Global Must Reads

The dollar plunged, with predictions the world’s reserve currency could drop 10% this year, amid a rout that wiped out about $2.5 trillion from American equities yesterday on the back of US President Donald Trump’s tariff shock. Investors are now debating whether foreigners, especially China, may scale back Treasury purchases in retaliation for the global levies. Vance downplayed the market moves as a blast of temporary pain.

French President Emmanuel Macron urged businesses in the European Union, the world’s largest trading bloc, to halt spending on the US, while Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba declared a “national crisis” ahead of a rare meeting with opposition leaders to discuss a unified response. Trump suggested he could be open to reducing tariffs if other nations were able to offer something “phenomenal,” yet also flagged that more levies are on the way, mentioning semiconductors and pharmaceuticals.

A South Korean court removed President Yoon Suk Yeol from office over his short-lived martial law declaration in December, paving the way for a presidential race to end a leadership vacuum that has gripped the nation for months. The Constitutional Court’s unanimous ruling today set in motion an election to take place within 60 days, with Lee Jae-myung, the leader of the main opposition Democratic Party, leading in polls.

US special envoy Steve Witkoff and Russian negotiator Kirill Dmitriev held two days of talks in Washington, after Trump expressed frustration with President Vladimir Putin over the lack of momentum toward a ceasefire in Russia’s war on Ukraine. The US is now waiting for Dmitriev to report back to Putin before the two sides move forward with any next steps, a source says.

Hakainde Hichilema promised to crack down on corruption when he won Zambia’s presidential elections in 2021 after graft had debilitated the African nation and helped oust it from international capital markets. Four years on, a series of political incidents and the purported treatment of a former Finance Ministry bureaucrat-turned-whistleblower suggest that Hichilema may not have fully broken with the recent past.

Denmark’s top diplomats stood up to Trump over his encroachment on Greenland, effectively ending a policy of quiet diplomacy they had hoped would make the issue go away.

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen in Nuuk on Wednesday. Photographer: Juliette Pavy/Bloomberg

Israel has sent soldiers into parts of northern Gaza, saying it wants to expand a buffer zone there as it escalates operations against Hamas.

Chinese and US defense officials had their first known formal contact since Trump returned to the White House in a meeting that partially coincided with Beijing conducting large-scale military drills around Taiwan.

The number of migrants trying to reach the US by trekking through the jungle to Central America plunged 99% in March from a year earlier, continuing a downward trend as Panama President José Raúl Mulino seeks to close the route.

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Chart of the Day

Trump imposed a 50% reciprocal tariff on the tiny southern African mountain kingdom of Lesotho, the highest levy for any sovereign nation. The $2.1 billion economy is dependent on South Africa for 85% of its imports and derives 35% of its government revenue from a regional customs-sharing pool. Encircled by South Africa, Lesotho exported $364 million more to the US than it imported in 2022.

And Finally

On the surface, there are similarities between the three female leaders of right-wing parties in Europe, embracing anti-immigrant views and a distaste for broader European integration. But look deeper and they couldn’t be more different. Italy’s Giorgia Meloni is a God-and-country conservative; Marine Le Pen a French nationalist who believes in state intervention; Alice Weidel a radical German libertarian. Their differences mirror the uneven shades of the populist right, yet by the end of Trump’s second term, they could bring about an entirely reconfigured EU.

From left: Weidel, co-leader of Alternative for Germany (AfD); Meloni, Italy’s prime minister; and the National Rally’s Le Pen. Photographers: Krisztian Bocsi/Chris J. Ratcliffe/Bloomberg; Pablo Blazquez Dominguez/Getty Images

Pop quiz (no cheating!). Which country, the world’s newest, stands on the brink of another civil war after its vice president was placed under house arrest? Send your answers to balancepower@bloomberg.net

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