| This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a historical hodgepodge of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. Sign up here. Remembrance of Empires Past | One of the great what-ifs of history involves the enormous armadas sent by China’s Ming dynasty (1368-1644) into Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean from the late 14th to early 15th centuries. The so-called treasure ships dwarfed any vessel built in Europe at the time — and predated by more than half a century the Portuguese explorers who’d become the vanguard of the colonization of Africa and Asia. But this projection of imperial power came to an abrupt halt with a last voyage in 1431.  Replica of a Ming dynasty treasure ship in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, China. There have been lots of theories about why it ended, but David Fickling hits it on the head with his comparison of Ming policy in the 14th century and Trump tariffs in the 21st. The Chinese armadas were the Ming emperors’ attempt to monopolize trade while shutting down all other avenues of commerce within their realm. That meant no one else was able to use the sea to trade in and out of China. Indeed, when the treasure ship policy proved to be too expensive, the government shut it down completely. The emperors kept to their inefficient and counterproductive trade monopoly and their ban on maritime activity. While the rest of the world hankered for Chinese porcelain and other products, China — officially — did not care for what others had to offer. And so the empire languidly slipped into decline, rich but doomed as, first, the Ming dynasty fell to invading Manchus north of the Great Wall. Then, the Manchus imitated Ming trade policies, and the isolation impeded their ability to keep up with Western technology. As David says: “Chinese governments imposed stricter and stricter controls on foreign trade, blocking ports, banning the construction of ships, and conducting military expeditions against merchants who were characterized by the government as pirates.” When the British tested them with gunships in the Opium Wars, the sclerotic Qing dynasty never recovered. The lesson for the US? David writes: “Trade restrictions cushioned Ming China against the shock of its relative decline as the Age of Sail put Europe in control of the world. A similar policy may provide some psychological comfort to a 21st-century America unable to come to terms with the similar rise of China and after it, India. Like muscles that atrophy from lack of use, however, a country closed off from commerce will gradually weaken. If you want America to be great again, a retreat into isolationism is the worst path to follow.” Meanwhile, in New Delhi ... | India got off relatively easy with the Trump tariffs. They weren’t as big as those imposed on its manufacturing rivals China and Vietnam. Furthermore, its powerhouse pharmaceuticals industry has gotten an exemption so far. Still, 26% isn’t a slap on the wrist, says Andy Mukherjee. In the wake of the global tariff tsunami, he advises that the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi “should mend bridges with Chinese President Xi Jinping and seek to actively participate in intra-Asian production networks. At the same time, for a quick exit from Trump’s doghouse, New Delhi should dangle the carrot of duty-free (and hassle-free) access for American firms to the most-populous nation.” He says that willingness to engage with the world will make Modi “the antithesis of Trump.” It will also put welcome pressure “on large conglomerates such as the Tata Group and the empires run by Mukesh Ambani and Gautam Adani, the two richest Asians.” They should invest in riskier but world-provoking enterprises — to produce things like China’s DeepSeek. “Or they must stop expecting to be coddled by state protection.” “Don't be fooled by the rally in sterling and the euro — the biggest for the single currency in almost a decade. What their sudden strength reveals more is the angst that has sent dollar assets tumbling than any outburst of optimism. But if the US economy takes a nosedive from Donald Trump's live experiment on trade, then there is going to be a much bigger reordering of the global economy. … It's important not to confuse gains in the euro, for instance, as a sign of economic strength. If European exporters face extra levies of 20%, then the last thing they need is a stronger currency, which makes their products more expensive in the US.” — Marcus Ashworth in “US Poised to Sneeze. Brace for Flu Elsewhere.”  “Subprime loans in India are teetering on the edge of a fresh crisis, with surveys showing signs of distress among 68% of borrowers. ... The share of loans overdue for between 91 and 180 days has jumped to 3.3%, from a post-pandemic low of 0.8% in June 2023. There’s more pain ahead. With 27% of borrowers taking out new loans to service old ones, and some families driven to more extreme coping strategies, such as pulling children out of school, the industry is bracing itself for higher defaults.” — Andy Mukherjee in “India’s Subprime Bubble Grew 2,100%. Now a Bust Looms.” You can NOT be serious! — John Authers Tulsi Gabbard is wrong … again.— James Stavridis Justice must be blind but clear-eyed. — Rosa Prince The threat of super pollutants. — Lara Williams When everything was Ghibli. — Gearoid Reidy Your Rolex ain’t getting cheaper either. — Andrea Felsted Walk of the Town: When Cripplegate Strikes a Nerve | April 1 played a bad trick on me. I’d been recuperating well from a running injury at such a good rate I thought I was ready to begin running again on April 2. Well, fools rush in … I tried to dash across the street to beat a “Don’t Walk” sign and promptly reinjured the same leg. And so, for a couple of days, I’ve been home partly immobile, partly standing gingerly and looking out of the window not to get too bored. Among the sites: the spire of St. Giles Cripplegate. Why, God, do you taunt me this way!  St Giles Cripplegate. Photograph by Howard Chua-Eoan/Bloomberg To be fair, the word “cripple” in the name does not refer to the halt and the lame but likely stems from the Anglo-Saxon crepel — a covered or underground passage. Crepelgate would have been one of the northern entrances to the old city of London, which was marked by medieval walls built atop truly ancient Roman ones. St. Giles, however, happens to be the actual patron saint of the disabled. How so? As a hermit and vegetarian, he had been nourished by the milk of a red deer in the forest. One day, however, hunters came after the deer, who fled to Giles for protection. The future saint shielded the animal but was wounded by an arrow. Hence, his sympathy and prayers for all the disabled. I could use his intercession right now. Sometimes, it just hits you ...  “I didn’t expect the Great Barrier Tariff to be on all our bucket lists.” Illustration by Howard Chua-Eoan/Bloomberg Notes: Please send serious carping and feedback to Howard Chua-Eoan at hchuaeoan@bloomberg.net. Sign up here and find us on Bluesky, TikTok, Instagram, LinkedIn and Threads. | 
