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US stocks plunged 9% this week
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Markets in meltdown 

Investors were forced to reckon with President Donald Trump’s vision for the US economy this week, and the verdict was dire: the trade war he unleashed is threatening to set off a worldwide recession — and fast.

Less than 48 hours after Trump rolled out his punitive tariffs, China retaliated. Now traders are pricing in what increasingly looks like a negative-feedback loop as Trump indicates he’s not going to back down.

Here's how the week ended:

  • The S&P 500 fell 9% for the week and capped the worst two-day plunge since March 2020. The rout has shed about $5 trillion in value so far. 
  • The Nasdaq 100 entered a bear market. European stocks tumbled into a correction.
  • Wall Street’s fear gauge — the CBOE Volatility Index or the VIX — spiked to 45.
  • Treasuries and the Japanese yen rallied as investors sought havens. Ten-year US yields dipped below 4%.
  • The dollar was volatile, rebounding 1% on Friday. It had plunged in the previous session as Deutsche Bank analysts warned of a “confidence crisis.”
  • Bitcoin was trading about 2% higher on Friday around $83,800. 
  • Oil tumbled to a four-year low. West Texas Intermediate futures fell about 12% in just two days. Copper plunged below $9,000 a ton. 
  • The cost to protect investment-grade debt against default surged by the most since the regional banking meltdown of March 2023.

“We are rapidly headed towards recession,” said Peter Tchir, head of macro strategies at Academy Securities. “The world was prepared for ‘reciprocal tariffs.’ Whatever the abomination that was launched at the Rose Garden was, it is a disaster — mostly for the US, but also for the global economy.”

Not even the announcement that US payrolls climbed faster than expected last month was able to change the narrative. That's old news now.

In a note titled “There Will Be Blood,” economists at JPMorgan Chase said they now see the chance of a US recession at 60%, double the probability they had at the start of the year. They reckon the tariffs are equivalent to the biggest US tax hike since 1968.

And central banks may not be rushing to the rescue. While markets added to bets the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates to the tune of a full percentage point by the end of the year, Chair Jerome Powell added to nerves by noting the tariffs looked larger than expected and that policymakers must ensure they don't fan inflation.

“It’s unclear how a few potential rate cuts this year will undo the economic damage that these tariffs are likely to cause,” said Emily Bowersock Hill at Bowersock Capital Partners. —Denitsa TsekovaEsha DeyIsabelle Lee and Liz Capo McCormickRita Nazareth

Here's what to watch next: 

Will the US negotiate trade deals? 
Trump said he had a “very productive call” with Vietnamese leader To Lam and that the country is willing to eliminate tariffs. That sparked a rally in shares of companies that have large manufacturing operations in Vietnam, including Nike and Lululemon. 

What happens to IPOs and M&A deals? 
Ticket platform StubHub, digital-payments company Klarna and adtech group MNTN have all pressed pause on planned listings. Other deals were also affected, with some companies deciding to hold off on sales or delay fundraising.

How will the EU respond?
Trade ministers will be meeting in Luxembourg next week to begin discussing how to react to US tariffs. The bloc has said it would prefer to negotiate a settlement, but is prepared to retaliate with countermeasures if needed, including with its own tariffs and taxing services and by targeting American tech firms.

What will Wall Street say?
US banks will kick off the first-quarter earnings season on Friday, with JPMorgan Chase, Bank of New York Mellon, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo all scheduled to report. Analysts are bound to ask plenty of questions about how tariffs will hurt the US financial industry. 

As President Trump’s trade war rattles global markets, Bloomberg Surveillance goes beyond the headlines with special coverage Sunday April 6th 5-7pm EDT. Join hosts Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz for real-time insight from top economists, market strategists and policymakers. Watch on Bloomberg.com/live and TV<GO> on the Terminal.

On the move 

  • Winners: Homebuilders. Building stocks rose on Friday, breaking away from the broader market selloff, as falling rates are expected to make home buying more attractive. D.R. Horton (+4.6%)
     
  • Losers: Energy producers, banks and travel. Oilfield-services stocks posted some of the biggest losses in the S&P 500 as energy prices tumbled. Baker Hughes (-13%) 
     
  • Magnificent Seven: Tesla (-10%), Nvidia (-7.4%), Apple (-7.3%), Meta Platforms (-5.1%), Microsoft (-3.6%), Alphabet (-3.2%), Amazon (-4.1%)
     
  • Shares of X-ray equipment makers plunged after China initiated an anti-dumping investigation into the imports of a type of medical X-ray tube from the US. GE HealthCare (-16%) 
The Stock Movers Podcast: Five minutes on the day's stock market winners and losers. Click here to listen on apple podcasts

What Wall Street is saying 

Oaktree co-Chairman Howard Marks: “If people don’t like the dollar, don’t like investing in the US, don’t want to hold an unlimited number of Treasuries; if we just make people mad,” Marks said, “the fiscal situation will be very complicated.”

The nearly 50-year veteran of financial markets and a leader in distressed debt investing said it’s “excessively hard” to make predictions right now. The world economy was “shook up like a snow globe by the events of the last days,” Marks said in an interview on Bloomberg TV. 

Discovery Capital Management founder Rob Citrone: “This environment is one of those times when my investment roadmap feels less like a drive down I-95 and more like navigating NYC rush hour with Waze constantly rerouting every 30 seconds,” he told clients in a note.

UBS Global Wealth Management: CIO Mark Haefele cut its view on US stocks to neutral from attractive and slashed its year-end target for the S&P 500 Index to 5,800 from 6,400.

Yardeni Research: A “great buying opportunity is being created here,”  said Ed Yardeni. He stuck to his target of 6,000 for the S&P 500.

Goldman Sachs: The bank cut its S&P 500 target for a second time this month. Strategist David Kostin expects the index to end the year around 5,700, making his forecast among the lowest on Wall Street.

“We simply were not taking this threat seriously because it seemed somewhat illogical to attempt to inflict this amount of economic harm on your own economy,” said Goldman Sachs partner and trading specialist Richard Privorotsky.

Pictet Asset Management: “The market is bleeding and more pain is clearly coming as this escalating trade war risks pushing the US economy into a recession,” said Luca Paolini, chief strategist at the firm. “It’s not a surprise China would retaliate. But this will inevitably cause a recession because the damage is done — unless Trump backs off.”

What else we’re reading

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