Good morning. Americans face a supply shock that may last all the way to Christmas. Canadians go to the polls today. And there’s been an arrest in connection with the theft of the Homeland Security Secretary’s handbag. Listen to the day’s top stories.

Donald Trump’s China tariffs are set to unleash a supply shock to the US economy that may stretch all the way to Christmas. By mid-May, thousands of companies will need to replenish inventories, a challenge which could lead to empty shelves and higher prices, as well as layoffs in industries from trucking to retail. In a sign of things to come, Shein hiked US prices by up to 377% ahead of tariffs on small parcels, while Temu appears to be passing on almost all of the new taxes.

Canadians go to the polls today with surveys pointing to a victory by Mark Carney’s Liberals. The Conservatives have chipped away at his lead, however, with a weekend poll putting the Liberals just two points ahead, down from a five-point advantage a week ago. Surveys show Canadians prefer Carney on the key election issue—which candidate can best push back against Trump.

Four Big Tech firms report earnings this week and the market may be headed for a disappointment. Analysts expect the Magnificent Seven as a whole to deliver an average 15% profit growth in 2025, a forecast that’s barely budged since the start of March despite the flareup in trade tensions. And the WSJ added to the nervous mood, reporting that China’s Huawei is getting ready to test a powerful new AI chip that it hopes can replace some products made by Nvidia.

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Remember when Donald Trump promised Americans a "boom like no other" if he was elected president? Well, the action has been explosive—just not how stock investors were hoping. Compounding the tension, bond investors are growing increasingly wary about holding US government debt. As for the markets today, they're in something of a holding pattern ahead of those tech earnings.

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Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskiy talk before the funeral of Pope Francis in Vatican City. Photographer: Ukrainian Presidential Press Office/AP

Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he’s hopeful for a “reliable and lasting peace” after a meeting with Trump, who later questioned whether Russia’s Vladimir Putin genuinely wants to end the war. Our analysis (using a large language model) of hundreds of Trump comments and thousands of social media posts show the president is telling Americans just what Putin wants them to hear. 

Deep Dive: Trump’s First 100 Days

Trump signs executive orders in the Oval Office on Jan. 20. Photographer: Jim Lo Scalzo/EPA

The Trump administration has been moving at a breakneck speed, with a flurry of executive orders and actions in the first 100 days, including on energy, education, and diversity efforts.

• The rapid pace has allowed Trump to make progress on his priorities, but has also led to economic and political peril, including uncertainty among trading partners and in financial markets.
• His tariff policies have increased the odds of a US recession, economists say, a potentially devastating blow to credibility for a president who reclaimed the White House on the promise of taming price increases and delivering prosperity.
• Already, a flurry of polls shows that voters perceive Trump to be falling short on his core campaign promise to strengthen the economy. A CNN poll released Sunday showed that just 39% of Americans approve of his economic management, the lowest of his two terms in the White House.
• Meetings with constituents have emerged as flashpoints for grass-roots anger over Trump’s policies, so much so that House Republican leaders have advised their members not to schedule town halls in order to avoid spectacles such as the boos, shouts and insults which greeted GOP lawmaker Mike Lawler on Sunday.

The Big Take

A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg

For years, buying dollars and plowing the proceeds into US stocks was the money-minting trade for the investor set in London, Paris and Tokyo. So when both parts of the trade suddenly blew up after Trump launched his trade war, the pain mounted quickly.

Opinion

Photographer: Al Drago/Bloomberg

Even supporters would be hard-pressed to describe Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s tenure at the Pentagon as a model of efficient management, Bloomberg’s editors write. Americans should expect more—and so should the administration.

Before You Go

Photographer: Ken Cedeno/UPI

An alleged “serial offender” has been arrested in connection with the theft on Easter Sunday of Kristi Noem’s handbag at the Capital Burger restaurant, the Secret Service said. Among the items taken were the Homeland Security Secretary’s office badge, credit and bank cards, passport, blank checks, prescription medication, driver’s license and a Louis Vuitton Clemence wallet, according to a person familiar with the incident.