The Musk intervention that sent the relationship spiralling was an attack on Trump’s so-called “big, beautiful bill” – a vast legislative compendium of the president’s tax and spending policies which would extend tax cuts, slash the social safety net, benefit the rich above the poor, end Biden-era green energy incentives and ramp up spending on border security and the military. Impartial analysis suggests that it could add an astonishing $2.4tn to the US deficit within 10 years.
Musk appeared to feel liberated to speak in such critical terms by the end of his tenure as a government official. He said that he is outraged at a package that will turn Americans into “debt slaves”. But as events of the last 24 hours seem to corroborate, his attack on such a major plank of Trump’s policy agenda may have more personal roots. “His discontent had been simmering for a while,” Hugo said. “And now he’s out of the White House, he doesn’t have anything to lose.”
How has Musk’s relationship with Trump changed?
While Musk appeared to run rampant through government in his role at the so-called “department of government efficiency” (Doge), there were some limits on how much latitude Trump was prepared to extend him.
The inflection point in the relationship, Hugo said, was in March, when it emerged that Musk had arranged private briefings on the Pentagon’s plans for any potential war with China without consulting the White House first. Even by the standards of the Trump administration, that represented a flagrant conflict of interest, given Musk’s considerable business interests in China. Those who are sceptical about Trump’s interest in propriety suggest that he was more piqued by the sense that Musk was operating outside his control.
“That really changed the dynamic,” Hugo said. “He didn’t like that he had to find out about it in the New York Times, and he didn’t like the notion that this guy was profiting off him. And there are a lot of people in the administration who thought he was too overtly amassing power for his own personal gain.”
Musk worked as a “special government employee” – a temporary hire limited to 130 days a year in a government role. “He wanted that extended,” Hugo said. “But the White House counsel’s office was clear that he couldn’t serve any longer.”
And just days after his official departure, the White House withdrew its nominee for Nasa administrator, Jared Isaacman, after it emerged that he had previously donated to Democrats. Isaacman, a billionaire CEO and private astronaut, was Musk’s pick for the role, and had close ties to his company SpaceX.
“That was really important for him,” Hugo said; indeed, he referred to it in his X broadside yesterday. Alongside Doge’s dubious record in finding the savings it promised, Musk’s failure to secure his preferred nominee for Treasury secretary, Howard Lutnick, and the brand damage his role did to Tesla, there is a sense that his tenure has left him worse off than when he started, he added. “He may be asking: what’s he got to show for his time in government to his own benefit?”
What does Musk say the rift is about?
Musk initially focused his public anger on the “big, beautiful bill”. That “massive, outrageous, pork-filled congressional spending bill” is a “disgusting abomination,” Musk said on X on Tuesday. “Shame on those who voted for it.”
By this account, and even if his language is pretty ripe, Musk’s disquiet is narrowly focused on a matter of policy in the public interest. He argues that as it now stands, the tax bill will undermine the work he did at Doge, and casts himself as a crusader for responsible fiscal management. He interspersed his attacks on Trump yesterday with old clips of Republicans arguing for a balanced budget.
The issue is still a live one because the bill is yet to make its way through the Senate: “It is still likely to pass, but not without major changes,” Hugo said. “Generally speaking, Republican senators are much more fiscally conservative.” Yesterday, the Hill reported claims that there are two “pretty definite ‘no’s” already, meaning that Republicans can only afford one more to keep the bill alive.
Criticisms from fiscal conservatives have intensified since Musk’s attack, and one of the two Republican senators expected to vote no, Ron Johnson, has called for “a smaller version of the bill”. While Johnson and another senator, Rand Paul, want to make deeper cuts, others are alarmed about what voters will make of measures already in the bill that would mean about 10 million people losing coverage under a health insurance scheme for people on low incomes, Medicaid. Trump, for his part, has told House Republicans: “Don’t fuck around with Medicaid.”
If fiscal hawks like Johnson and Paul prevail, they are likely to credit Musk with giving them momentum – but while the result might be a bill that adds less to the deficit, that would probably alienate many working-class voters who supported Trump last year.
Are there any other factors?
Consequential though his intervention might be, there are good reasons to doubt that a zealous commitment to balancing the budget is the real reason for Musk’s decision to go public. After all, Musk supported the Democrats until he took umbrage at Biden policies that supported trade unions and a decision to exclude Tesla from an electric vehicle summit at the White House. “It’s not ideological, it’s self-serving,” Hugo said. “He may talk about the deficit for cover, but the way he has conducted himself politically in the past suggests that he primarily operates out of self-interest.”
This time, the real bone of contention – beyond his broader alienation from the White House – appears to have been a provision in the legislation ending a $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit that helps people buy Teslas. Yesterday, Musk called the decision “very unfair!!”, while Trump said: “He only developed a problem when he found out I would cut the EV mandate.”
“Musk really wanted that to be in there,” Hugo said. “Tesla spent about a quarter of a million on lobbying to have that included. This is at a time when the company isn’t doing that well, partly because of Musk’s own image, but also because of a broader slowdown in electric vehicle orders.” Yesterday, the 14% fall in Tesla’s share price saw $152bn off its value.
How much does all of this matter?
It’s less than 24 hours since Politico published a story suggesting that Trump was likely to take an indulgent view of Musk’s indiscretions – and quoting administration sources pointing out that Musk’s posts had targeted the bill and Congress rather than Trump himself. That view is now, obviously, impossible to sustain.
Still, you can see why the White House would be nervous. Trump’s pantomime fallouts are very rarely with people who have the power to do him serious harm; Musk, though, has hinted that he might fund primary challenges to Republicans who back the bill, warning that “in November next year, we fire all politicians who betrayed the American people”.
Hugo is sceptical that he will follow through. “A gazillion things will happen between now and then, and I just don’t believe this is going to be his animating issue,” he said. But even if he chooses not to spend lavishly, three and a half years of allegations akin to the ones he made yesterday about the Epstein files (which, the White House said, constituted “an unfortunate episode from Elon”) aren’t likely to do wonders for Trump’s popularity.
British readers may recall another instance of a chaotic leader getting on the wrong side of a kingmaking ally with a god complex. Donald Trump can’t be forced to resign like Boris Johnson was – but even Dominic Cummings wasn’t armed with almost $400bn.
