Good morning. The House, which was up all night, is getting closer to a final vote on President Trump’s major policy bill. (Follow updates here.) We have more on that below. But first, today’s news:
Plus, see what happened to some famous French shirts after tariffs hit.
Borrowed future
President Trump’s domestic policy bill, which the House is debating now on the floor and is expected to vote on soon, would add $3.4 trillion to the federal debt over the next decade. That’s on top of $29 trillion the U.S. already owes. Numbers that big can lose their meaning. But the debt is not all abstract; it’s money Americans enjoy today but future generations must pay off with interest. The interest America has to pay its lenders will exceed $1 trillion for the first time ever next year — more than we spend on Medicare. But not all debt is created equal. A trillion dollars means something different in the U.S. than it does in, say, Ireland or Panama. So how should Americans make sense of the debt? Economists have a few different ways of assessing that, beyond how big or small the total is. Today, I’ll break down three and explain how the U.S. fares on each. 1. Compare it to G.D.P.Everything is relative. $29 trillion sounds like a lot — and it is. It’s among the biggest fiscal shortfalls ever recorded for a developed nation not at war. But the U.S. also has the largest economy in the world. Economists often measure debt by how it compares to a country’s economic output, also known as G.D.P. America’s debt is now about the same size as its G.D.P. (Japan and Italy have also crossed that threshold, but few other countries have.) The U.S. government is already slated to borrow an additional $21 trillion over the next decade. That, plus $3.4 trillion from the Republican bill, may soon push the debt well past the G.D.P.
2. Look at who owns itCountries can issue bonds — tiny pieces of their debt — to investors at home and abroad. Japan has the most debt of any wealthy nation relative to its G.D.P., but domestic investors own nearly 90 percent of it. That gives Japan’s economy a cushion. When the government pays interest on its debt, those outlays end up back in the hands of bondholders who reinvest the money locally. Not so for foreign investment. Foreigners hold nearly a third of America’s debt. That translates to $8.5 trillion, all of which the U.S. must eventually ship back to bondholders abroad. It’s a missed opportunity for domestic investment, and thus for economic growth. 3. Consider what’s comingAs the world changes, our financial needs change, so our debt may stretch or shrink. We can’t predict the future, but there are certain things we can be reasonably sure about.
There are also things we can’t know, like whether Trump’s tax cuts will juice the economy, or whether his tariffs will raise enough money to offset costs. But economists have enough information to forecast the direction of U.S. debt, and the arithmetic is unforgiving. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that America’s debt will grow 56 percent larger than its G.D.P. within 30 years. That’s uncharted territory for the U.S. — and the world. More on the bill
Sean Combs, the hip-hop mogul also known as Diddy, was acquitted of sex trafficking and racketeering charges, which carried a possible life sentence. He was convicted of a less serious charge, transportation to engage in prostitution, and the judge ordered that he remain in jail until his sentencing. Jon Caramanica, a Times music critic, said the verdict means “Combs largely escaped the fate of some other high-profile entertainment figures who have been held accountable in the #MeToo era.” Two former girlfriends had accused Combs of forcing them to participate in sex parties that involved drugs and male escorts. The defense argued that those parties were, in essence, part of a consensual swinger lifestyle. Julia Jacobs, who covered the trial for us, explains the mixed verdict in the video above. And Jon reflected on the verdict: Had he been convicted across the board, he likely would have faced a full reputational shattering like Harvey Weinstein, once the most powerful man in film, who has been imprisoned on federal sex crimes since 2020. Or R. Kelly, once R&B’s most formidable and popular star, who has been in prison since 2022 on sex-trafficking and racketeering charges. Combs would have been a villain who once was famous, not the other way around. Instead, it’s possible that these charges and this trial might end up being viewed as a blemish on his résumé, another tragedy that registered only as a speed bump.
Middle East
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Other Big Stories
Trump has taunted the media for years. What’s happening now, though, is different: The president is using government to intimidate news outlets, The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board argues. As the world changes, what it means to become American must change, too. Reducing legal immigration, with amnesty for those already here, will help, Ezekiel Kweku writes. Here’s a column by Lydia Polgreen on Zohran Mamdani. Morning readers: Save on the complete Times experience. Experience all of The Times, all in one subscription — all with this introductory offer. You’ll gain unlimited access to news and analysis, plus games, recipes, product reviews and more.
Pet crocodiles: North Australians love them. See pictures. Freeze your wedding dress: The former head of conservation at the Met Costume Institute has advice for storing your clothes for posterity. Your pick: The most-clicked link in The Morning yesterday was a fact-check on Republicans’ claim that their policy bill will help seniors and the middle class. Lives Lived: Dave Scott left a college basketball career to become, without formal training, a prominent hip-hop choreographer. He mapped the moves for adrenaline-charged street dancing films. Scott died at 52.
Accident: The Liverpool soccer star Diogo Jota, 28, died along with his brother in a car crash in Spain, the police said. Jota married his longtime girlfriend two weeks ago. N.B.A.: The New York Knicks have offered Mike Brown their head coaching job, and the two sides are expected to finalize a deal soon. M.L.B.: A fan known as the Home Run Thief says he has caught 24 home run balls during his time as an Arizona Diamondbacks season ticket holder. He’s now banned for the rest of the season.
Before you fire up your gas grill for the Fourth, inspect it for gas leaks. This soapy-water test can make spotting potentially dangerous faults in your grill — something that’s virtually impossible with the naked eye — much easier. 1. Mix equal parts dish soap and water in an empty, clean spray bottle. 2. With the propane valve shut, the grill off and the lid open, generously spritz the soap-and-water mixture onto the propane regulator, the entire hose and the grill’s brass connectors. 3. Slowly open the valve of the propane tank and watch for soapy bubbles to form. If there’s a leak, the bubbles will expand, and you should immediately shut the valve. |
