Few things will send a shiver up the spine like an unexpected brown envelope landing in the mail. Trump says the U.S. will start delivering the first letters outlining what tariffs will apply from August 1 to a handful of countries later today. Who the recipients are, what the contents are, and what the reaction might be are a mystery at this point.
In April, Trump unveiled a tariff base rate of 10% on most countries, and additional duties ranging up to 50%, although he later delayed the effective date for all those except the 10% rate until July 9.
Trump himself hasn't offered much in the way of clarity. Early on Friday, he said the tariffs could be even higher - ranging up to 70% - with most set to go into effect on August 1.
"I signed some letters and they'll go out on Monday, probably twelve," Trump said, when asked about his plans. "Different amounts of money, different amounts of tariffs."
So far, markets aren't reacting at all. Since he took office, Trump has built a solid reputation for threatening one thing, only to back down, delay or reverse course completely.
Having said that his administration would strike "90 deals in 90 days", so far there is one limited deal with Britain and an agreement in principle with Vietnam. The pause in the trade war with China expires around August 12.
While the two sides have taken steps on loosening certain restrictions on issues like shipments of semiconductor chips and critical minerals, there have been no signs yet of any major breakthrough.
But Trump can still surprise. In a social media post on Sunday, he pulled a completely new policy out of the bag - that of applying an extra 10% levy on countries that "align themselves with the "Anti-American policies" of BRICS."
The original BRICS group gathered leaders from Brazil, Russia, India and China at its first summit in 2009. The bloc later added South Africa and, more recently, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates as members.
It was not immediately clear what Trump meant by "anti-American" or whether this new threat would derail trade talks with India, Indonesia and other BRICS nations. Group heavyweight China said on Monday the threat of another 10% tariff served no one.
It seems clear that the oil price is almost certainly going to head lower over the course of the summer driving season. The OPEC+ group, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-members such as Russia and Oman, agreed to raise crude output next month by a lot more than expected.
The group is planning to raise production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, up from the monthly increases of 411,000 bpd that were approved for May, June and July.
Lower energy costs will please Trump, who is seeking to loosen regulations around oil and gas extraction at home, urging companies to "drill, baby, drill." What might please him less is that the OPEC+ output increase is about taking market share, specifically from the producers in the prolific U.S. shale basin.
Finally, it seems Tesla investors are unhappy about chief executive Elon Musk's decision to dive back into politics. Having left the Department of Government Efficiency, which carried out mass dismissals of government employees, to concentrate on his businesses in May, Musk has announced the creation of the "America Party". He has repeatedly criticised Trump's landmark tax-cut and spending bill on the grounds that it would add trillions in national debt and bankrupt the country.
A day after asking his followers on X whether a new U.S. political party should be created, Musk said on Saturday that the "America Party is formed."
Trump has called the plans "ridiculous". As the feud with Musk escalates, Trump has threatened to pull billions of dollars that Tesla and Musk's SpaceX company receive in government contracts and subsidies.
