Principals

1. Trump delays tariffs
2. Rubio in Asia
3. Texas disaster relief
4. Ukraine weapons to resume
5. Schumer warns on rescissions
6. North Carolina Senate race
7. 2021 again in Virginia
8. Osborne runs in Nebraska

PDB: El Salvador denies responsibility for US deportees

Trump hosts Cabinet meeting … Amazon Prime Day kicks off … Nikkei index ⬆️ 0.26%

Trump threatens more tariffs

Businesses and foreign leaders looking for some certainty about President Donald Trump’s trade agenda could have to wait another month. Trump threatened a host of US trading partners with higher levies starting Aug. 1 unless they make a deal with the US. The duties range from 25% for Kazakhstan, Malaysia, South Korea, and Japan to 40% for Myanmar and Laos (numbers similar, but not identical, to his original “Liberation Day” tariff levels). The president’s decision to delay his July 9 deadline adds to the trade uncertainty and could undermine the White House’s negotiating hand, but countries “will take the letters seriously because they have taken the president seriously,” press secretary Karoline Leavitt insisted. One trade association leader told The Wall Street Journal that “continuing to threaten exorbitant tariff rates is just paralyzing for business decision-making.” US markets sank on the news.

Rubio’s Asia trip clouded by tariffs

Secretary of State Marco Rubio is on his first trip to Asia as the top US diplomat — and Trump’s tariffs aren’t making things easy for him. Rubio will participate in meetings with ASEAN and at the East Asia Summit in Malaysia, as he looks to demonstrate the US’ commitment to Asian allies. Meanwhile, Trump’s new tariff threats are targeting important US strategic allies like Japan and Korea and injecting friction into relationships the US will need to effectively push back on China. Rubio “is focused on reaffirming the United States’ commitment to advancing a free, open, and secure Indo-Pacific region,” the State Department said of the trip. While Rubio isn’t leading tariff talks, he plans to echo the White House by “defending the need to rebalance US trade relationships,” Bloomberg reported.

Texas may need Congress’ help

Federal and state officials are still primarily focused on rescue efforts in Texas after this week’s devastating floods, but don’t be surprised if the damage requires a congressional response in the coming months. It may take a few weeks to quantify the toll — and to determine whether the disaster relief fund will cover it or if a supplemental bill is needed. If more cash from Congress is required, lawmakers may look to hitch it to a must-pass spending bill. “Anything we can do to help. The supplemental tended to North Carolina last year, so certainly would be open to that,” Sen. Ted Budd, R-N.C., told reporters on Monday. “Let’s get through the immediate stage right now and take care of lives, save as many lives as possible, assess the damage — and then come with a more accurate question of what’s actually needed.”

— Burgess Everett

Ukraine weapons whiplash

Less than a week after pausing weapons shipments to Ukraine, Trump said his administration would reverse course. “They have to be able to defend themselves,” he said alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday evening, also expressing disappointment in Russian President Vladimir Putin for not moving to end the war. Trump also told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that he didn’t order a pause on weapons in a phone call last week, The Wall Street Journal reported. The developments created a sense of whiplash in Ukraine, which had been caught off guard by the original pause on critical munitions, like Patriot interceptors. “At President Trump’s direction, the Department of Defense will send additional defensive weapons to Ukraine to ensure the Ukrainians can defend themselves while we work to secure a lasting peace,” the Pentagon said after Trump’s remarks.

Rescissions weigh on funding fight

Senate Democrats are warning that if the Senate GOP approves the House-passed package to claw back government funding, that could poison the well for bipartisan work on funding the government past Sept. 30. In a letter to Democratic senators, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said passage of those rescissions “would be an affront to the bipartisan appropriations process.” Senate Republicans have largely shut out Democrats from legislating of late, and can pass the rescissions package with just 50 votes, though it’s still not clear that they’ll manage. But they’ll need 60 votes to fund the government this fall. Schumer said Republicans are “proposing Congress negotiate bipartisan deals in the committee room, while they retreat to a backroom to rubberstamp President Trump’s purely partisan scheme.”

— Burgess Everett

NC’s Senate hopefuls in holding pattern

North Carolinians interested in replacing retiring Sen. Thom Tillis are waiting out decisions from Lara Trump and Roy Cooper, the state’s former Democratic governor. “Our calculus on everything has changed with Tillis out,” Democrat Wiley Nickel, a former congressman, told Semafor. The president’s remark that his daughter-in-law is his “first choice” has thrown another curveball to candidates already awaiting a decision from Cooper. “Lara Trump’s very viable,” said Budd. “There’s a great case to be made” for her. That puts donors and other potential candidates in a holding pattern. An RNC official said “Chair [Michael] Whatley is focused on serving the president and working with his team to protect and expand our Republican majorities.” Crypto insiders said they don’t expect the high-spending industry — which supports Nickel but could benefit from GOP control — to get involved until much later.

— Eleanor Mueller and Burgess Everett

GOP reverts to 2021 playbook in Virginia

Virginia’s statewide elections have become a test: Will voters prefer the issues Republicans used to sweep the state four years ago, or Democrats’ promises to battle the Trump administration? “We need a governor who understands we’re not going back,” Lieutenant Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears said at a pre-holiday rally to introduce the GOP ticket, joined by Gov. Glenn Youngkin.

They reminded a crowd of Republicans that Democrats had signed off on COVID restrictions, mask mandates, and gender and race equity policies that have since been wiped out by the Trump administration. Democrats believe that voters have moved on since 2021, when those issues helped Youngkin and the GOP ticket knock them out of power; at her own rallies last month, Spanberger said she’d be “a governor who will stand up” for federal workers who had been laid off by DOGE, which Republicans have not celebrated in Virginia.

— David Weigel

Osborn returns in Nebraska

Nebraska mechanic Dan Osborn will run again for Senate as an independent, after his 7-point loss for the state’s other Senate seat last year. In an interview, Osborn said he’d continue to run outside either party, but would have opposed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. “This is a race to the bottom for folks like me, and it benefits folks like Pete Ricketts,” said Osborn, criticizing the GOP senator he’d be running against. Osborn did not renounce Democratic support, saying that Nebraskans will “know I work for them and no one else.” Jane Kleeb, the chair of the Nebraska Democratic Party, said that the party would not back a candidate of its own against Ricketts, and would let Osborn run one-on-one against a GOP incumbent, as it did in 2024. “We like the chances of a mechanic versus a billionaire.”

— David Weigel

Today’s youth are being raised at a critical technological crossroads, where emerging social media pressures are driving isolation and fueling rise in depression and loneliness. While tools offer unprecedented connectivity, they also contribute to digital fatigue, fragmented social relationships, and a profound sense of isolation.

Join Semafor at The Gallup Building to hear from Sen. Katie Britt, R-Ala.; Daniel Zoltani, Executive Director of the Whole Foods Market Foundation; Sara DeWitt, Senior Vice President and General Manager of PBS KIDS; Laura Horne, Chief Program Officer of Active Minds; Stacey McDaniel, National Director of Strategy and Quality Practice for Anti-Hunger of YMCA; and more, as we explore the complex drivers of youth wellbeing and the impact of this crisis on multiple future generations.

July 16, 2025 | Washington, DC | RSVP

Blindspot: Violence and measles

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: A new report accuses Hamas of engaging in widespread sexual violence during the Oct. 7 attack on Israel.

What the Right isn’t reading: Measles cases in the US reached a 33-year high amid vaccine skepticism.