Balance of Power
As he often has during his rule, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is showing an ability to thrive in turbulent times.
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Politics in Turkey is rarely dull, but the last few months have been more tumultuous than usual.

The main opposition party is in crisis amid a crackdown that saw the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu in March. The party’s most popular figure and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s most formidable rival is due to appear in court today on graft charges he says are politically motivated.

The arrests have continued of other mayors and senior members of the Republican People’s Party. Last week, Turkey opened an investigation into the chairman of the CHP, as the party is known, on allegations of insulting Erdoğan.

The government also threatened to shut down Grok, the AI service on Elon Musk’s X platform, after a series of posts critical of Erdoğan.

Ekrem İmamoğlu. Photographer: Mehmet Masum Suer/LightRocket/Getty Images

There have been plenty of clampdowns since Erdoğan first took the helm of Turkey more than 20 years ago. Opposition politicians say the latest moves are designed to ensure he stays in power beyond 2028, when the next presidential election is scheduled.

Erdoğan and his ministers say Turkey’s courts are acting independently.

For now, there’s little to stop the government. Erdoğan enjoys a strong rapport with US President Donald Trump. Even European leaders, critical in the past, are largely mute.

Erdoğan’s well aware that today’s geopolitical environment works in his favor. He controls NATO’s biggest army after the US and may provide peacekeepers for Ukraine if a ceasefire with Russia is negotiated. Turkey’s defense industry build-up is seen as important for Europe’s security.

Markets also appear unfazed. Global investors initially took fright when İmamoğlu was arrested and Turks demonstrated in massive numbers against the government.

Assets have soared since the short-lived sell-off. Yesterday, Turkey sold a €1.5 billion bond that was more than three times subscribed, with European and US investors buying almost 85% of the debt.

As he often has during his rule, Erdoğan is showing an ability to thrive in turbulent times. Paul Wallace

Erdoğan in Azerbaijan in November 2024. Photographer: Hollie Adams/Bloomberg

Global Must Reads

Trump said he plans to make a “major statement” on Russia on Monday as he reiterated criticism of President Vladimir Putin’s refusal to stop the war in Ukraine in an NBC News interview. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said a meeting with US and European allies in Rome stoked optimism that Trump will ramp up military aid, including air defense.

Trump threatened a 35% tariff on some Canadian goods and raised the prospect of increasing levies on most other countries, ramping up his trade rhetoric in comments that weighed on stocks and boosted the dollar. His plans to impose 50% tariffs on copper imports are set to include the kinds of materials used for power grids, the military and data centers, sources say.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva insisted Brazil can survive without US trade and will look to other partners to replace it, a sharp response to Trump after he threatened 50% tariffs on goods from the South American nation. Trump’s trade threat partly came in response to the legal woes of his populist Brazilian ally, former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is barred from running against Lula ahead of a trial on charges that he attempted a coup.

Lula during a news conference at the BRICS Summit in Rio de Janeiro on Monday. Photographer: Dado Galdieri/Bloomberg

Argentina’s Senate passed three bills yesterday that significantly hike spending on social security and other programs, measures that threaten to derail the austerity drive championed by President Javier Milei ahead of October’s midterm elections. In a speech shortly after senators cast their votes, Milei pledged to veto the legislation and possibly ask courts to intervene.

Keir Starmer sealed a “one in, one out” migrant-returns trial with French President Emmanuel Macron that highlighted the limits of the UK prime minister’s efforts to reset relations with European nations after Brexit. While it’s the first time France has agreed to take back small-boat migrants and it may serve as a deterrent, the limited nature of the agreement barely makes a dent in the flows of migrants undertaking the crossing.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is meeting with his Chinese counterpart at a summit in Malaysia today, the first in-person session between the two and a possible prelude to a presidential summit.

Rubio with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Kuala Lumpur today. Photographer: Mandel Ngan/Pool/AFP/Getty Images

Tokyo complained to Beijing after Chinese fighter jets tailed Japanese patrol aircraft twice this week, prompting the foreign ministry to express its deep concern and ask China to prevent similar incidents from happening again.

The US government asked a group of African nations for help with efforts to deport asylum seekers, according to Liberian President Joseph Boakai, one of five African leaders to meet Trump this week at the White House.

Myanmar’s junta chief, Min Aung Hlaing, praised Trump in a rare letter and compared his military’s coup to the US president’s baseless claims of election fraud, suggesting both leaders were victims of rigged votes.

Don’t miss from Bloomberg Weekend: Mahathir Mohamad, Malaysia’s longest-serving prime minister, discusses US tariffs and China’s tactics in the South China Sea with Mishal Husain, and Marc Levinson looks at why the new US shipbuilding strategy is unlikely to work; subscribe to the Bloomberg Weekend newsletter here.

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Chart of the Day

French Prime Minister François Bayrou urged the European Central Bank to do more to support the economy, as his administration struggles to contain its budget deficit and address slowing growth — a rare critique from a euro-area government of the independent central bank. The nation’s outlook is deteriorating and output is seen expanding less than the euro area average this year, while borrowing costs have also increased relative to European peers.

And Finally

For fans, the FIFA Club World Cup is a bonus — a high-stakes football tournament featuring world-class players during what otherwise would be a lull in the season. But the tournament’s main selling point is also its main flaw. It represents extra work for players — a slate of high-pressure matches that place a dangerously heavy burden on body and mind.

Lionel Messi of Inter Miami celebrates scoring a goal at the FIFA Club World Cup. Photographer: Robbie Jay Barratt/AMA/Getty Images

Pop quiz (no cheating!). The president of which country faces a fresh government crisis after a senior police official accused a cabinet minister of interference in a probe into political assassinations? Send your answers to balancepower@bloomberg.net

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