Latest Vibrio Lab Testing and Research
Seasonal Forecast for Vibrio Illnesses
The Vibrio forecasting team continues to develop a Seasonal Forecast for Vibrio illnesses in the Chesapeake Bay region, using components of NOAA’s North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) from the Climate Prediction Center.
We are currently revising our illness prediction models to account for a shift in surveillance methods. In 2017, Culture Independent Diagnostic Testing (CIDT) became the primary method for detecting Vibrio cases, a change reflected in the CDC’s Cholera and Other Vibrio Illness Surveillance (COVIS) data. Because our earlier models were trained on pre-CIDT data, their performance has declined in recent years under the new reporting system.
To improve accuracy, we are developing new models for post-2017 forecasts, based on the component models of the NMME. Once model development is complete, the updated forecast will provide seasonal outlooks indicating whether conditions for the upcoming Vibrio season are likely to result in a stable, increased, or decreased number of reported illnesses compared to previous years.
Ava Ellett (NCCOS) retrieves swab from filter cartridge for laboratory analysis. Credit: NOAA.
Testing Cost-Effective Method to Monitor Vibrio
In addition to ongoing water sample testing for forecast validation, the Vibrio lab team has been exploring cost-effective methods for culturing Vibrio. One approach currently under evaluation involves filtering 10 liters of seawater through a homemade PVC cartridge packed with sterilized, rolled cheesecloth, which is then cultured in its entirety in the lab. Watch a video demonstration of this method. From these cultures, Vibrio can be isolated and sequenced to identify potentially virulent strains.
Chesapeake Bay Sea Nettles Forecast
NCCOS is excited to now be providing the Chesapeake Bay Sea Nettles Forecast, which was one of the first ecological forecasts provided by NOAA. This valuable tool helps swimmers and beachgoers anticipate the presence of stinging sea nettles (Chrysaora chesapeakei), which are often found near the surface in large numbers during the summer when water temperature and salinity are high.
The forecast features probability maps based on data from NOAA’s Chesapeake Bay Ocean Forecast System (CBOFS). The Vibrio forecasting team also uses CBOFS to predict the presence of Vibrio vulnificus in the Chesapeake Bay. The salinity in the CBOFS model was found to drift over the summer, and a bias correction was added to the model, using the NOAA CBIBS buoys. This salinity correction is also used to improve the Sea Nettles forecast.
The NCCOS Vibrio Forecasting team serves the public as part of NOAA’s cross-agency Pathogens team, initiated in the early 2010s through the Ecological Forecasting Roadmap, alongside other groups such as the Harmful Algal Bloom and Hypoxia teams. Ecological Forecasting efforts are highlighted at NOAA Ecological Forecasting.
Vibrio predictive models and tools support coastal communities with guidance for safer handling of shellfish and safer recreation in coastal waters.To learn more, visit the Vibrio Predictive Models website to view the latest guidance models. Thank you for subscribing and for your interest in Vibrio forecasting products!
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