| Republicans passed their big tax and spending bill about two weeks ago. It’s an expensive piece of legislation, one that most Americans say they don’t understand and, based on what they have heard, don’t seem to like, according to polls. That’s a problem for Republicans. As President Donald Trump takes control of many decisions in Washington — including federal spending and tariffs — this tax bill is Republicans’ major legislative accomplishment. It’s what they’ll campaign on in next year’s midterm elections as the GOP tries to keep control of the House and Senate. Here’s what’s in the bill and why it has the potential to be unpopular. What’s in the bill “The expansive bill will affect nearly every American, regardless of their stage in life or income level,” my Washington Post colleagues write. The toplines: - Most Americans won’t see modest tax increases.
- Babies born from 2025 through 2028 will get a $1,000 investment account.
- Middle-income seniors will have an expanded tax credit.
- Wealthy people will receive major tax cuts.
- After Trump promised not to touch entitlements to pay for this legislation, nonpartisan estimates show at least 17 million Americans are projected to lose government health care or subsidies that make health care more affordable.
The Post goes into more detail here. This bill could hit Trump supporters particularly hard The spending cuts Republicans made to help pay for some of this will be felt in red America. Republicans cut $1 trillion from Medicaid, which along with other social programs is a major driver of the debt. It’s a widely used public health insurance program for low-income Americans of all ages and Americans with disabilities. (As opposed to Medicare, which serves seniors.) Drew Altman, president of the nonpartisan health policy organization KFF, estimates 20 million to 25 million Republicans use the program. The loss of federal money could lead states to make their own cuts to Medicaid. That also would affect rural hospitals, which “say they’re being forced to consider tough choices — like cutting services for children or cancer patients,” NBC News reported. The government is also pulling back on federal investments in green-energy manufacturing that blossomed in red communities under President Joe Biden’s climate law. “It is inescapable this bill will betray the promise Donald Trump made,” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-North Carolina) said on the Senate floor as it was being debated this month. He was one of three Republican senators who voted against it. This week, Republican lawmakers are working to pass more spending cuts that could slash funding for publicly supported radio and TV stations like NPR and PBS that some rural communities say they rely on for emergency messages. The tax bill may also be a drag on the economy Despite all of these politically risky cuts, the bill is still so expensive that it’s estimated to add trillions to the national debt over the next decade. Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, said the United States already has so much debt, it spends more money paying its interest than it does on the military. That makes borrowing money more expensive and limits investments in American innovation. Republicans argue that the tax cuts will bring long-term economic growth because businesses will have more money to invest in workers. But economists I’ve talked to say that’s a precarious bet, and it lands right as inflation is picking up and Trump’s tariffs are starting to raise prices on most goods. It may take a lot to turn around public opinion on the economy right now. Americans are pulling back on summer vacations, and just 24 percent of Americans say the economy is getting better, while 52 percent say it’s getting worse, a new Economist/YouGov poll found. Americans don’t seem to like what they know of the bill A majority of Americans oppose the legislation and say they think it will hurt average Americans, according to an Economist/YouGov survey conducted after Republicans passed it. But it’s still early. Many of the more unpopular policies in the bill will not take effect until after the 2026 midterm elections, The Washington Post’s Amy B Wang reports. That gives Republicans time to reframe the public’s view of the legislation, such as by highlighting how it ends taxes on some tips and overtime pay and makes the child tax credit more generous. The Bipartisan Policy Center also praised the bill’s tax credits to help offset the rising cost of child care. “There’s a lot of misunderstanding as to what this is,” said Sarah Chamberlain, president and CEO of the Republican Main Street Partnership, which supports Republicans in Congress. She said she doesn’t expect the cuts to Medicaid to leave vulnerable people without health insurance, though those decisions will ultimately be up to states. “If you have a job, you shouldn’t be on this program,” she said. “But cutting old people in nursing homes and young people in wheelchairs — that’s not happening.” But most Americans’ lack of knowledge about what’s in this new law puts Democrats in a great position, said Cheri Bustos, a Democratic former congresswoman who represented a rural Illinois district for five terms. Democrats, she said, have a rare chance to steer the narrative about Trump ahead of next year’s elections for control of Congress. “It’s now up to Democrats to make sure people know what this is all about,” she said. “Pick three points and hammer, hammer, hammer: Health care. Prices aren’t getting better. Are you more hopeful? Democrats need to be consistent and relentless and understandable and emotional.” | 
