Good morning. Donald Trump doubles India’s tariff rate and vows a 100% levy on chips. Apple pledges another $100 billion to boost US production. And Mars is digging into cocoa’s DNA to defend the crucial crop. Listen to the day’s top stories.

Donald Trump slapped an extra 25% tariff on Indian goods in response to the country’s ongoing purchases of Russian energy, escalating a showdown that’s prompted shock and fury in the Asian nation. Narendra Modi’s main political rival branded Trump a “bully” for the fresh penalty, marking a rare moment of bipartisanship. He also announced a 100% tariff on imports that include semiconductors, though would exempt companies moving production back to the US. 

Apple promised to splash another $100 billion on US manufacturing as it seeks to avoid punishing tariffs on its flagship iPhones. The pledge, confirmed just before the start of an event with Tim Cook at the White House, brings its total commitment to $600 billion. The stock jumped, with analysts predicting the company’s latest promise may soften Trump’s ire over its heavy reliance on India for iPhone assembly.

Russia and Ukraine’s leaders may meet with Trump as soon as next week. The US president is said to have detailed the plans in a call with European allies during which he expressed optimism about the possibility of a ceasefire. The effort to convene a meeting came hours after Vladimir Putin hosted US special envoy Steve Witkoff for negotiations that Trump said yielded “great progress.”

Fear’s out and FOMO’s in—for now. Stock buyers waded back into the market, propelling a rally in most Big Techs, as robust corporate earnings overshadow lackluster economic data that one Federal Reserve official said may signal an inflection point for the US economy. Despite some recession risk, one macro trader at Goldman Sachs said betting against the market momentum “feels almost irrational.”

Blackstone’s latest buy is a real power move. The private equity firm is snapping up Enverus in a deal that may value the data and analytics giant at more than $6 billion. The platform, which draws its data from over 95% of US energy producers, gives Blackstone a major new foothold in the booming energy tech space. Apollo also landed a fresh deal. The asset manager agreed to buy a majority stake in Stream Data Centers, marking its first big bet on digital infrastructure as AI spurs demand for power. 

Deep Dive: AI’s Two-Horse Race 

The US kicked off the AI boom through groundbreaking tech and massive private-sector investment—but China’s breathtaking speed, scale, and coordination have made it a formidable contender to win what’s now a clear two-horse contest.

• American AI startups raised more than $100 billion in the first half, PitchBook data shows, and a handful of tech giants plan to splash more than triple that this year. But Beijing is betting big bucks, too. China’s AI capital expenditure may hit $98 billion this year, up 48% from 2024 levels, according to Bank of America. 
• Access to cutting-edge chips is one of Beijing’s most serious obstacles, but Chinese companies faced with constraints have built AI models that can do more with a lot less. And unlike their American counterparts, they’ve embraced open-source standards, helping them flood the global market with freely available products.

• Snatching the AI crown from the US is possible—but no easy feat. With top-tier models, chips, talent, and deep pockets, America still looks ahead. But how far? “It’s very hard to say,” OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said in May. “But I would say not a huge amount of time.” 

The Big Take

Opinion

China’s “national team” is perfecting the art of dip buying, Shuli Ren writes. This group of institutional investors that buys index funds to stem market routes is making good money. It’s also creating confusing market narratives.