What to know: By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Bitcoin (BTC) has established itself more firmly above $115,000 on renewed demand for risk assets as the implications from Friday's weaker-than-expected jobs market data sink in. |
The Federal Reserve is now widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, with the CME’s FedWatch tool weighing a 93.4% chance of that happening. On Polymarket, traders are slightly less convinced, seeing a 79% chance of a cut. Traders are positioning for reductions at the following two meetings as well.
Add in strong earnings from major companies and a weakening U.S. dollar, and the outlook is looking a little stronger for equities and other risk assets. The Nikkei 225 rose 0.65% today, the Euro Stoxx 50 is up 1.2% and the S&P 500 closed up 0.73% on Wednesday. The Nasdaq Composite closed up 1.2% on news of chip tariff exemptions and President Trump signaling he may appoint dovish members to the Fed.
In a sign of long-term institutional interest, the State of Michigan Retirement System (SMRS) boosted its bitcoin exposure through spot ETFs.
Yet the real story may be how little BTC is moving. The cryptocurrency’s 30-day implied volatility, as tracked by the BVIV index from Volmex, has dropped to 36.5%, a level not seen since October 2023, when bitcoin traded under $30,000.
The pattern resembles Wall Street's bull markets, where implied volatility tends to shrink as optimism grows. In previous cycles, bitcoin's price and volatility moved in tandem.
Structured crypto projects that allow investors to sell out-of-the-money call options to generate yield may be playing a part in reducing the volatility.
Still, geopolitical risk isn't going to go away. Trump levied an additional 25% tariff on India over its Russian oil purchases, which could lead to a “mini crunch in supplies if Delhi draws on other crude sources instead,” Hargreaves Lansdown said in an emailed note. That would likely force OPEC+ members to amp up production to avoid a crisis, Hargreaves Lansdown said. On top of that, while peace talks on Ukraine have been advancing, recent nuclear rhetoric suggests there’s a long way to go. Stay alert! |
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Crypto
- Aug. 7, 10 a.m.: Circle will host a webinar, "The GENIUS Act Era Begins," featuring Dante Disparte and Corey Then. The session will discuss the first U.S. federal payment stablecoin framework and its impact on crypto innovation and regulation.
- Aug. 15: Record date for the next FTX distribution to holders of allowed Class 5 Customer Entitlement, Class 6 General Unsecured and Convenience Claims who meet pre-distribution requirements.
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Aug. 18: Coinbase Derivatives will launch nano SOL and nano XRP U.S. perpetual-style futures.
Macro - Aug. 7, 7 a.m.: The U.K.'s central bank, the Bank of England (BoE), announces its monetary policy decision.
- Bank Rate Est. 4% vs. Prev. 4.25%
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Aug. 7, 8 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases June producer price inflation data.
- PPI MoM Prev. -1.29%
- PPI YoY Prev. 5.78%
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Aug. 7, 8 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases July consumer price inflation data.
- Core Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.39%
- Core Inflation Rate YoY Est. 4.23% vs. Prev. 4.24%
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Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.28% vs. Prev. 0.28%
- Inflation Rate YoY Est. 3.53% vs. Prev. 4.32%
- Aug. 7, 3 p.m.: Mexico's central bank, Banco de México, announces its monetary policy decision.
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Overnight Interbank Target Rate Est. 7.75% vs. Prev. 8%
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Aug. 8: Federal Reserve Governor Adriana D. Kugler's resignation becomes effective, creating an early vacancy on the Board of Governors that allows President Trump to nominate a successor.
Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data) - Aug. 7: Hut 8 (HUT), pre-market, -$0.07
- Aug. 7: Block (XYZ), post-market, $0.63
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Aug. 7: CleanSpark (CLSK), post-market, $0.30,
- Aug. 7: Coincheck Group (CNCK), post-market, N/A
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Aug. 7: Cipher Mining (CIFR), pre-market, -$0.07
- Aug. 8: TeraWulf (WULF), pre-market, -$0.06
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Aug. 11: Exodus Movement (EXOD), post-market, $0.12
- Aug. 12: Bitfarms (BITF), pre-market, -$0.02
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Aug. 12: Fold Holdings (FLD), post-market, N/A
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Arbitrum DAO is voting to renew its partnership with Entropy Advisors for two more years, starting September 2025. The proposal includes $6 million in funding and 15 million ARB for incentives for Entropy to focus on treasury management, incentive design, data infrastructure, and ecosystem growth. Voting ends Aug. 7.
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BendDAO is voting on a plan to stabilize BEND by burning 50% of treasury tokens, restarting lender rewards, and launching monthly buybacks using 20% of protocol revenue. Voting ends Aug. 10.
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1inch DAO is voting on a $1.88 million grant to fund its participation in nine global crypto events through late 2025. The proposal aims to boost developer engagement, grow institutional ties and expand adoption across ecosystems like Ethereum and Solana. Voting ends Aug. 10.
- Aug. 7, 12 p.m.: Celo to host a governance call.
- Aug. 8, 11:30 a.m.: Axie Infinity to host a town hall on Discord.
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- Aug. 9: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.3% of its circulating supply worth $12.66 million.
- Aug. 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.73% of its circulating supply worth $48.18 million.
- Aug. 15: Avalanche (AVAX) to unlock 0.39% of its circulating supply worth $37.2 million.
- Aug. 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 3.53% of its circulating supply worth $15.40 million.
- Aug. 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 0.96% of its circulating supply worth $16.52 million.
- Aug. 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 1.8% of its circulating supply worth $36.52 million.
- Aug. 18: Fasttoken (FTN) to unlock 4.64% of its circulating supply worth $91.4 million.
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Aug. 7: TaleX (X) to be listed on Binance Alpha, BingX, MEXC, and others.
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The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB10 for 10% off your registration through Aug. 31.
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Join us for this curated gathering that unites D.C.’s most important public officials with legal, policy and compliance leaders from the private sector to advance crypto standards and reform.
Space is limited. Use code CDB10 for 10% off your registration through August 31. |
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