Dear friends and colleagues:
The CFR Global Monetary Policy Tracker is updated through August 7.
It’s been a quiet few weeks in the realm of monetary policy—much to the annoyance of President Trump, who is demanding that the Fed slash its policy rate immediately by a full three percentage points.
Among the major reserve-currency issuing central banks, the Fed stood pat over the past month at 4.38%, the ECB at 2%, the PBoC at 3%, the BoJ at 0.5%, the BoE at 4.25%, the Bank of Canada at 2.75%, and the Reserve Bank of Australia at 3.85%. Our CFR Index of Global Easing (-)/ Tightening (+) remains at-3.03/10: modest easing.
Assuming there is no emergency FOMC meeting before the next scheduled one on September 16-17, markets are assigning an 85-95% probability of a 25 basis-point cut at that time. Tariff-fueled inflationary pressures, however, could still upset expectations—the market’s and the president’s.
Please be sure also to check out our CFR Global Inflation Tracker, which covers nearly 200 countries over the past quarter century.
Sincerely,
